Monday July 23, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

Since July 1st Ahmadinejad has been saying that the real battle between the West and Iran is now beginning because of the new heavy sanctions that are in effect.

Before July 1st the Iranian leader's rhetoric was directed internally. Now Ahmadinejad is starting to make serious threats to the West. The United States is interpreting these threats.

Intelligence and diplomatic analysts have almost certainly concluded that Iran is going to strike at the oil industry. That explains why futures on gasoline and oil have started to rise. The thinking is that Iran is going to make a move very soon and that move will include squeezing the Straits of Hormuz.

For Iran, there is no downside.

If there is tension in the Gulf - the price of oil goes up and they win.

If they reduce the movement of oil through the Straits of Hormuz - the price of oil goes up and they win.

If the United States attacks Iran unrest emerges in the region and - the price of oil goes up and they win. Plus they win even more because they appear as the victim and the US is the aggressor.

There is almost no situation in which Iran does not win. The best way to keep the Iranians weak is to keep the situation normal.

Good Luck with that.

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