Wednesday December 12, 2012

I've Been Thinking:

The civil war in Syria has been dragging on for 21 months.

The figures are staggering. Syria is a relatively small country. 22.5 million people live in Syria. Most of them have been seriously impacted by the conflict.

As of now the there have been about 45,000 deaths. And 509,000 refugees have fled the country - that equals about 2.5 percent of the population. The refugee figures come from the UN. The fatality figures are an estimate.

The destinations of the refugees are Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan.

As we plot and monitor the crisis so far in Syria it seems clear that the pendulum swings back and forth. Assad is on the rise and then he is on the ropes. The resistance is more effective and then they are less effective. Until the rebels unite it will be very difficult to oust Assad.

It is impossible to predict the future of Syria. As long as the air force and most of the army still stand behind Assad he will not step down and he will continue to inflict serious damage on the rebels. And the country will remain torn and shattered.

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