Friday February 26, 2016

I've Been Thinking:

Today is the day. It is election day in Iran.

Two elections are taking place. One election is for the Majlis which is the Iranian parliament. One election is for the Assembly of Experts.

Today's elections could reshape Iran as we know it - but the deck has been stacked against change.

There are 6,200 candidates running for about 290 seats in the Majlis. The exact number will be determined in relation to the total number of voters.

There are 88 slots in the Assembly of Experts.

Every candidate running for either the Assembly or the Majlis must be vetted by a special committee. Most candidates running for the Assembly of Experts did not pass the vetting process. Only 1% of the 3,000 reformist candidates passed the process making it almost impossible for them to actually get elected.

The moderates have united with the reformers in the hope that, against all odds, if they are well organized, they can beat out the hardliners who will divide the vote.

The moderate/reform unity group has issued a list of suggested candidates. The list was published on social media and contained only 30 recommended candidates for the Majlis and 18 for the Assembly of Experts.

They need many more than 30 members of parliament. However, 30 is a modest expectation and can serve as an important bulwark for their platform.

It is possible that there are other underground lists. If there are, in the end the unity group could garner 146 seats and that would certainly change Iran.

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