Sunday February 20, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

The Gaza pullout won an overwhelming majority in Israel's cabinet vote today.

The 17-5 vote in an essential cabinet decision further anchors Ariel Sharon's position and encourages the prime minister to continue with his withdrawal plan.

That being said, as withdrawal plans turn into reality, internal Israeli tensions - Jew against Jew -will continue to rise.
These tensions will continue until 1 of 2 things happen: the pullout is complete, or until real violence breaks out.

Israel's internal security services, the Shin Bet, equivalent to the FBI, are trying to identify extremists and then anticipate their moves. It is no easy feat.

The extremists are a small and very organized groups.
Vocal extremists are not necessarily the truly dangerous people.
A 40 person protest disrupting traffic at the entrance to Jerusalem is significant and may be illegal but may not involve any of the dangerous people.

The really dangerous people are observing carefully. They are planning something that they think will disrupt the Gaza plan. They are planning something big, an attack against the Sharon and his government. They are setting the stage by demonizing Sharon as the enemy, or worse - calling him a traitor or a nazi.

That is the trail the security services must follow.