Wednesday March 16, 2005

I've Been Thinking:

Things are changing quickly in the world of Hamas and, surprisingly, they seem to be rolling with the punches.

Hamas has now decided to run for Palestinian Legislative Council elections.
Hamas is considering extending the "Hudna," the ceasefire, the quiet, that Abbas has implemented with Israel.
Hamas may be forced, due to US pressure, to temporarily close their Syrian offices and find exile in Damascus.

These are big changes. But what do they all mean?
Running in Palestinian elections means that Hamas de facto recognizes the establishment of both the Palestinian Authority and Israel because it means that they are willing to become part of a government that negotiates with Israel.

Extending the Hudna means a ceasefire with Israel may become more permanent and more stable, something Hamas has always been loath to do.

Once expelled from Syria there are only a few places Hamas can go, in the past they went to Jordan and Iraq but both those options are closed to them right now so the most likely place for Hamas to end up would be Iran or on "Hizbullah Land" in Southern Lebanon.

Hamas. Watch Carefully.