Tuesday March 15, 2005

Column:

The question is: How do you navigate a minefield without getting yourself blown up?
The answer is: Be careful. Be smart. Use a map.

Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak has just returned from a visit to Syria's president, Bashar Assad.

Mubarak is the dean of Middle Eastern Arab leaders. He is debonair, he is stately. He rose to power after the death by assassination of Anwar Sadat. He has experience with extremists.

Assad is a whippersnapper. He is British educated and an ophthalmologist by training. He inherited his position after the death of his father. He wasn't the first choice. First choice, his brother, was killed in racing accident. This Assad came to power through default.

What was the meeting between these two Arab leaders about? Sitting in luxurious surroundings, in an environment so opulent that it makes the West Wing look drab, the two discussed events of the day.

I'm not a fly on the wall, but I am an analyst. And I'll bet that, after the requisite exchange of common pleasantries, these are the topics the two men discussed:
Syria in Lebanon
Syria and Iraq
The United States in the Middle East
Israel and the Palestinians
Syria and Israel

When Mubarak comes to Damascus he comes as the leader of the moderate Arab world. He is one of the most significant friends of the US and of the West. Egypt is one of only two Arab countries to have signed a peace treaty with Israel.
Egypt's Mubarak was in Syria as elder statesman, ready to impart wisdom and understanding on the much younger and less experienced Assad. Mubarak was hoping to help Assad navigate the mine field.

Egypt is a symbol in the Arab world. When Mubarak comes calling, it is a significant and important step in regional diplomacy. Assad, I am sure, did not absorb a word Mubarak was saying. He heard the words. But he could not understand the implications. Assad has always been and still is, a skeptic.

So, what did Mubarak have to say? What did Assad actually hear?

on SYRIA IN LEBANON
MUBARAK says: Pull all your army to the border. Do it fast and this mess and international media frenzy will pass. Stop agitating everyone and drawing attention to what you are doing. Take a few positive steps to ease the pressure.
ASSAD hears: Lebanon is mine, it is mine to play with. There is no agitation. You are the one who does not understand if you are telling me these things.

on SYRIA AND IRAQ:
MUBARAK says: Stop violating the border. You are endangering the entire region.
ASSAD hears: ...absolutely nothing... he cannot even understand why Mubarak is talking.

on THE UNITED STATES IN THE MIDDLE EAST:
MUBARAK says: Tread carefully. The US is more involved and more aware than ever. The United States will probably leave the region soon and not invade Syria. But that also depends on you. The quieter you are, the sooner they leave.
ASSAD hears: My policy is effective against the United States. The risks are very low.

on ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS:
MUBARAK says: There is real progress going on. But you must stop supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad in order for Abbas to succeed.
ASSAD hears: True, I have to be more careful. I must give more support for the subversive forces.

on SYRIA AND ISRAEL:
MUBARAK says: The only way to get anything from Israel is to accept them. Then you negotiate. That is how to get everything you want.
ASSAD hears: I understand. That is why Egypt is a weak and underdeveloped country.

In the end, despite the good will and best efforts of Hosni Mubarak, Bashar Assad is totally unaware of the realities around him. That is the only way to explain the assassination of Hariri, the Lebanon issue and the Iraqi border. He sees and he senses none of the dangers around him. Assad is being very poorly advised.

The information, the intel Assad is provided with by his own intelligence gatherers is skewed to mesh with their leader's own pre-conceived notions and inaccurate observations. And that, for the Middle East and for the rest of the world is not only troubling, it is dangerous.

Bashar Assad is leading his country through the mine field. The only question we are left with, is how many others will be hurt as the field explodes.