Saturday October 24, 2009

I'm Predicting:

There is conflict on the Palestinian horizon.

Yesterday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, leader of Fatah, called for new Palestinian elections.
The elections will be for president and for the parliament.
They will take place exactly 3 months from the date of the announcement, on January 24, 2010.

The last time Palestinian elections were held was in January of 2006, four years earlier, almost to the date. Hamas won the parliamentary majority with 76 out of 132 seats and was able to take the prime ministry. In the end Abbas, rejected Hamas because they would not accept the 3 basic rules laid out by the Quartet.
Hamas and Fatah are still and again fighting and the fighting will intensify and Hamas is calling the upcoming elections illegal.

Abbas is in a lose-lose situation.
His popularity and the party's popularity are dropping quickly. He has given himself three months to get back in everyone's good graces.
Hamas may boycott the elections.
They will boycott to demonstrate that Abbas is the leader of only part of the Palestinians Authority.

Hamas just might win the election again.
And this time, they may even win the presidency.

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