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Naysayers About Normalization
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 31, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Morocco is the fourth Arab nation to announce normalization with Israel.
Over the past three decades Israel and Morocco have had secret relations - especially in the areas of security, terror and even foreign relations.

Despite all that, there has been serious blow back against the move to normalization. In Morocco and throughout the Arab world there is talk that normalization is an abandonment of the Palestinians and that following Donald Trump’s lead is a real mistake.

There is no way of knowing what the numbers are, of how many Moroccans support or reject normalization in Morocco. Morocco is not a democracy.

However, it is clear that the move will help concretize and increase relations with Israel and that those interactions that have been in place for decades.

Naysayers are exaggerating the damage that will be done and underestimating the benefits to Morocco.

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China Wants in w W Israel
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 30, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The landscape is changing in the Middle East.

More and more countries are warming up to Israel.
And China is playing a more significant role in the Middle East.

That’s not all good news. Israel must tread very carefully.

China is determined to develop deeper relationships and become more involved with various Mid East countries. And Israel is on that list.

As the Trump era wanes and the Biden administrations emerges, China is going to want to play a more and more active role.

China cannot replace the United States – that is abundantly clear. But Israel will want to gain some of the advantages China has to offer. Those include investors, tourists, hi-tech production and most importantly, low-priced imports.

Trump did not look kindly at Chinese advances toward investments in Israel. We do not know how Biden will view the move.

It is imperative for Israel to understand that, while China may become a business partner, China will never be a friend.

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A/S Still Around
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 29, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Anti-Semitism still exists. That should not come as a surprise.

The Simon Wiesenthal Center in LA published a top ten list of anti- Semitic outbreaks for 2020.

Number one: Jews created COVID. Again, not a surprise.

The report clearly explains that “[f]rom the earliest stages of the pandemic in February 2020, far-right extremists across social media platforms blamed Jews and Asian Americans for the virus.”

One example of that hatred is demonstrated through “an image titled ‘Holocough’ [that] urged, ‘If you have the bug, give a hug. Spread the flu to every Jew.’”

Another example is demonstrated throuf\gh a Trojan Horse with a Jew and a globe inside. The head of the horse is COVID-19 and people at the gate of the city invite the horse in.

The idea that the Jews created and spread COVID is obviously a canard. The most unfortunate part is that there are still many people living among us who believe the ugliest of stories about Jews.

And that, I am afraid, will not change and not go away in 2021.

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COVID in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 28, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Israel announced that they should have the COVID-19 pandemic under control by late February to mid-March.

They have already vaccinated nearly 300,000 people. 100,000 were vaccinated on Sunday alone.

There have been some hiccups. People complained that when they called on December 24th for appointments to vaccinate their elderly parents, they received an appointment for March. That is three months later.

When they complain, they are asked to call back because “more vaccination sites are opening all the time”.

Chief Sefardic Rabbi Yitzchak Yossef dedicated time to discuss the COVID vaccine on his Saturday night Torah lesson which is broadcast around the world on radio and internet TV.

Rabbi Yossef said that it was a Jewish legal obligation to GET the vaccine.

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Iran Threatens Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 27, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran threatened Israel by saying that they will attack any Israeli submarine found in the Persian Gulf. This threat came in response to statements by Israel and the United States that they are dispatching subs to the area.

Abu al Fadi Amoui, a spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, said this in an interview on Al Jazeera in Arabic:

“Israel must know that our response to aggression against our national security will be strong and massive … Israel is looking for excuses to drag the region into a tension that creates chaos in the last days of the Trump presidency.”

Iran has been referencing Trump’s last days a lot. They have repeatedly said that Israel is trying to draw Iran into a conflict in the final weeks of the Trump presidency.

Iran likes to play mind games with the West.

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Morocco & Palestine
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 25, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Mohammed VI, King of Morocco, sent an official letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In the letter the king wrote that Morocco stands behind the Palestinians and firmly supports a 2-state solution with Israel.
This is critical.

Morocco has begun to normalize relations with Israel, they have even instituted direct flights between the countries.

The purpose of the king’s letter to the Palestinians was to make it clear to Abbas and to all Palestinians and to the world that normalizing with Israel does not mean the end of support for the Palestinians.

The King of Morocco was explaining that they did not switch teams and can no longer be involved with the other side. The opposite. King Mohammed is saying that supporting both the 2-state solution and normalization with Israel is good for everyone.

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Israel's 3rd Lockdown
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 24, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Israel will enter another 2-week total lockdown on Sunday.

The cabinet met Wednesday night and agreed that all schools will close with the exception of 1-4 grades, 11th & 12th grades and special education. School will be limited to 5 hours of class.

No one will be able to wander more than 100 meters, which is 110 yards, from their homes.

All businesses, except food services, must close. Food services may deliver. No dining in doors or outdoors.

Only essential workers may move about.

Gatherings are limited to 10 people indoors and 20 people outdoors.

Israel’s Corona Czar. Professor Ash, has said that 2 weeks will not be enough.
Corona virus numbers in Israel have been climbing and climbing. Over the last week they have doubled to 4,000 cases per day.

Shutting down has worked for Israel in the past -- this is their third shutdown since March.

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UN Condemns Israel 17 Times
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 23, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

As 2020 comes to an end, it behooves us to look at some numbers.
In 2020, the United Nations General Assembly voted to condemn Israel 17 times.

The entire rest of the world combined was condemned (only!) 6 times.

One of the condemnations against Israel was for a 2006 oil spill off the coast of Lebanon -during a war with Hezbollah.

The only relief in this preposterous state of affairs is that resolutions in the UN General Assembly have no authority - they are totally without practical power.

They do, however, give a clear indication of the way Israel is viewed by the rest of the world.

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Israeli Elections in March
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 22, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Israel’s Knesset, their parliament, did not pass their budget. And that means that Israelis are heading to their fourth set of national elections in two years.

Elections are scheduled for March 23rd. The date falls almost on the eve of Passover.

It is too early to predict what will happen in 3 months - BUT - there are certain absolutes.

The Blue and White Party has imploded. The party, which had emerged as a mosaic trying to bring together the center left, splintered after the last election.
There is no way they will get together again.

Gideon Saar broke, once a prominent member of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, broke away from Likud and is forming a new, right-wing party. He wants to bring party members and voters with him which will, inevitably, draw traditional voters away from Netanyahu and the Likud.

Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina Party, which means “the right” has staked out a position further to the right of Netanyahu and will draw many voters from
Netanyahu’s traditional base. Bennett began his campaign several months ago.
Voters who are frustrated by Netanyahu feel comfortable with Bennett. Voters who naturally lean right feel comfortable with Bennett. He is squeaky clean and that is a very attractive attribute in this era of political corruption.

A lot will happen in the coming months.

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Huge Iran Hack on Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 21, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Pay2Key is an Iranian hacker or hacking group - it is unclear. Individual or a group, they are highly skilled.

Pay2Key recently claimed that they hacked into Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI). They claim to have accessed one of the most secure facilities in the world.

Pay2Key published proof of their hack on their Darkwebsite, even including the name of the head of the IAI cyber division. Copies of secured documents were posted on their site.

How much damage was inflicted is unclear. The IAI says that no hack was detected.

If the hackers gained access only to files, they still have eyes on some of most sensitive material about Israel’s missiles and satellites, Israel’s present and future plans and importantly, Israel’s defense systems and intel.

If true, this was a huge hack.

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Iran Now Likes Bolton
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 20, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran’s FARS media has run a large story singing the praises of John Bolton.

I, too, was stunned as I read the piece. John Bolton is a hawk on all issues - especially on the Iranian issue.

As President Trump’s National Security Advisor, Bolton was the most vociferous of all hawks, constantly suggesting strikes and aggressive responses to Iranian hostility. None of this was new behavior or thinking. Bolton has been consistent throughout his career.

And then he and President Trump had a parting of the ways. And John Bolton wrote a tell-all book. And now Iran is praising him.

The reason is clear. In praising John Bolton, Iran is criticizing Donald Trump.

There are rumors that President Trump wants to impose martial law. Bolton does not think that to be a good idea and made his comments public. Trump retorted, in a tweet, that Bolton is “one of the dumbest people in Washington.”

Iran has been running with the martial law story.

It proves Machiavelli’s axiom. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Trump is Iran’s enemy + Trump and Bolton are enemies = Iran + Bolton = Friends.
Simple math.

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US Not Sharing Intel w Qatar
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 18, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Ever since Qatar sided with Iran, they have been on the outs in the Sunni Middle East.

And Qatar is also paying the price with Western democracies.
A report by the British Cornerstone Institute reports that the United States no longer shares intel with Qatar for fear that it will be shared with Iran. And neither do Great Britain or France.

What make this change in policy even more interesting is that Qatar still hosts US and British forces.

The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is the largest single military installation in the entire Middle East. One of the reasons it is so large is that the base hosts both US Airforce units and British Royal Air force units, and also serves as the very important Headquarters of US Central Command.

More evidence that Qatar has been distanced from the West is that they ran to Turkey and Iran to try to scuttle the deals other countries were making with Israel. Qatar, Turkey and Iran are consolidating their relationship in the hope that they can become a strong front against the deals with Israel, all of which were sponsored by the United States.

It is assumed that Qatar has told the United States that they may not attack Iran from their territory. If that is true, it clearly shows where Qatar stands on the world stage.

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Russia Has a Plan
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 17, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Last week Russia’s ambassador to Israel said that Israel was the most destabilizing force in the region. He said that Israel was even more destabilizing that Iran.

This week Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called US policy in the Middle East “unconstructive.” He was responding to a comment made by Mike Pompeo that Russia’s Mid East policies are “destabilizing”.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had declared that: "Russia continues to threaten Mediterranean stability using a variety of techniques to spread disinformation, undermine national sovereignty, and sow chaos, conflict and division within countries throughout the region."

Lavrov response was: "The US practically bans all the countries in the region from cooperating with Russia, whether in the military or technical fields, as well as on any other issue."

Lavrov’s example was accurate. The US has imposed sanctions on the Turkish defense industry because Turkey imported Russian S-400 missile defense systems, which is incompatible with NATO systems and could compromise the Western world. Turkey has denied the claims, saying that it has no plans to integrate the Russian system into NATO.

Turkey’s comments are irrelevant. Their promise not to integrate or share NATO military information with Russia is empty and hard to believe.

But what is most distressing is this war of words between the United States and Russia.

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Sudan & Israel - True Relationship
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 16, 2020
I've Been Thinking:


A series of questions is emerging about the normalization deals between Israel and some Arab countries.

Like Sudan. Sudan has a nasty history of perpetrating terror and supporting terror.
They have a terrible human rights record. They have made some of the most extreme of anti-Israel statements.

Sudan has almost nothing to offer Israel. With that knowledge it was not surprising to hear Sudan’s foreign minister, Omar Qamar al-Din, being interviewed on Al-Hadath TV and saying that Sudan "agreed to avoid a state of war with the Hebrew state but we will not reach any other state."

As if that wasn’t enough, he went on to say that "there is no diplomatic representation, no Chamber of Commerce and no cooperation between Israeli and Sudanese universities or companies. There are military factors that work together as far as we know. I have no further information on this matter. Everything that concerns the promotion of relations with Israel in the future depends on there being an agreement or agreements, and any such agreement will be presented to the legislative council that will be formed soon."

Normalization is just normalization, normalization is not peace.

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Iran's New Nuke Plan
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 15, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran has just announced that they are planning to build two brand new nuclear facilities.

This announcement appears to be revenge for the assassination of the father of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

These new sites will be up and running within five months. It could change the entire nuclear game.

The first site is a laboratory that will deal with uranium in metal form. It is a mechanism essential in the making of nuclear weapons. The lab will have a heavy water reactor that can accumulate plutonium in its spent fuel.

Richard Johnson, the Senior Director for Fuel Cycle and Verification at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization, expressed his concern over Iran’s plans when he said: “If either was to proceed, that would stand out as a major proliferation concern.”

This is serious issue for the world. Iran has said that they will shut the new facilities down only if the United States re-enters the famous JCPOA, aka, the Nuke Deal.

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Iran's Oil Plan
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 14, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Iran is planning to up their oil pumping production next year. As of the beginning of the Iranian year, which means March, Iranian leadership plans to increase production to 4.5 million barrels/day.

This will happen in two stages.

Stage One takes place right now and extends through the Biden inauguration.
First, Iran will increase their oil production to 2.6 million barrels per/day. In Stage Two they will double that to 4.5 million.

Impressive as those numbers sound, the real increase will be in increasing their oil input from their current production numbers to reach 2.6 million. According to Bloomberg News, Iran is now only producing 133,000 barrels/day.

This plan was presented, by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, to the Iranian parliament on Saturday.

Oil is the most significant component of Iran’s economy. They need to pump their oil and to sell their oil. These past few years the Iranian economy has been crippled. It looks like it is on the mend.

As their economy improves, so will Iran’s threat and so will their nuclear program.

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Benefits of Normalization
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 12, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

I get the question all the time: What does Israel gain from normalization deals with Arab nations? What benefits do the Arab and Muslim countries realize from these deals?

The obvious answer is peace. But while that is a significant reason, it is not really relevant right now. There was little chance of war because none of the countries that have now normalized with Israel, share borders with Israel. And there is only a slight chance that, because of the normalizations, either the international community or the United Nations will change their tone when it comes to Israel.

And so, the main reason, the most significant reason, these countries want to normalize with Israel is to use this new status as a military check against Iran.

Another reason, important but of slightly less importance, is that with normalization comes access to Israeli technology. All forms of Israeli technology – and that includes bio tech, medical tech, agricultural tech. It also includes solar energy technology and advancements and natural gas exports.

These countries want to ride the wave of Israeli security and hi-tech military advances.

Morocco, for example, now imports 90% of their energy. Israel can help them with solar energy and natural gas. And even before the normalization of ties announcement went public, Morocco had secretly purchased $48 million worth of drones from Israel.

The benefits for Israel, too, are numerous. Doors, formerly sealed shut and markets, once unavailable, are opening wide for Israel. Millions of investment dollars are pouring into Israeli tech.

Next in line look to be Oman and Indonesia.

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Hamas Hacking Arabs
By Micah Halpern

Friday December 11, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The cyber branch of Hamas has been hacking Arabic-speaking targets in the Palestinian Authority, United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Turkey.

Hackers sent emails to Arabic readers with links to interesting stories about Arab countries normalizing relations with Israel. Imbedded in the links were viruses that enabled the hackers to access their targets computers, especially their history.

The question is: Why would Hamas want to monitor what Arabic readers were reading.

The answer is that Hamas wants to know what the Arab masses and what Arab world leadership is reading and what they are thinking regarding Israel.
In other words, they are worried that now that the many in the Arab world are warming up to Israel, they might be turning an even colder shoulder toward Hamas.


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Norway Defunds Palestinians
By Micah Halpern

Thursday December 10, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Norway’s Storting, the Norwegian Parliament, voted to slash aid to the Palestinians.
They cut $3.4 million in aid to the Palestinians.

Norway’s Progress Party lobbied and convinced the parliament that for years the Palestinians have been saying that they will change, or have already changed, their textbooks. And yet, in schools and in their textbooks, Palestinians glorify terror and terrorists and preach wiping Israel off the map and pushing the Jewish State into the sea.

"Norwegian taxpayers will not pay the monthly salary to terrorists,"
Norwegian lawmaker Himanshu Gulati, the deputy chair of Friends of Israel in the Storting, posted a statement on the FrP website. He wrote: “Norwegian taxpayers will not pay the monthly salary to terrorists … "When Norway provides aid to Palestine, the money goes into the same economy that is also used to pay prisoners 'salaries’ ".

If the PA continues to pay salaries to the families of Palestinian prisoners arrested, convicted and serving time in Israeli prisons, Gulati called for Norway to further cut their aid to the Palestinian Authority.

This is critical.

For decades Norway has been known as a friend of the Palestinians, often attacking Israel as unfair and as an aggressor. They attacked Israel because they believe that Israel is stronger than the PA and that Israel has the power to help the Palestinians.

But Norway will not tolerate anti-Semitism. Norway cannot be part of or sponsor anything that promotes anti-Semitism.

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Russia: Israel More Destabilizing than Iran
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 9, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

The Jerusalem Post ran a shocking interview with Russian Ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov.

Viktorov said that Israel was the most de-stabilizing factor in the Middle East … not Iran.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry called him in and dressed him down.

The Russian Ambassador to Israel called Israel an aggressor. He questioned Israel’s bombing of Iranian arm shipments to Hezbollah, even if the tunnels Israel discovered on the border were dug by Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Moscow knew of and even prompted Viktorov’s comments. They also knew that he would be called in by the Foreign Ministry of Israel.

For Moscow, it was worth it all.

Moscow is realigning itself in the Middle East. It is shifting its own position in order to make Iran and Syrian and Turkey more comfortable.

Russia is responding to US involvement in the normalization of ties between Israel and several Arab nations.

Russia is siding with those who reject this US/Israel move.

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Iran Sending More Oil to Venezuela
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 8, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Venezuela is suffering from a crippling shortage of oil. Considering that Venezuela is a member of OPEC and was once one of the world’s largest producers and supplier of oil and that Citco was once Chavez’ oil company – this is not a predicament anyone would have expected for Venezuela.

There are many reasons explaining why Venezuela is now in such dire straits. Most important is that the United States has made it clear that the Venezuelans have not been playing nicely when it comes to Foreign affairs. Nicolas Maduro has been a flamboyant and aggressive anti-US propagandist.

Venezuela needs help – and Iran is coming to their rescue. Iran, as we all know, is also in the diplomatic doghouse with the United States.

Iran has already sent oil tankers to Venezuela, I’ve written about that several times.

Now, they have launched a flotilla of 10 tankers headed to Venezuela to help further relieve the oil crisis.

Venezuela’s crisis will be eased, but the Iranian inspired crises in the Western world will be heightened.

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Abu Dhabi To Open Office in Israel
By Micah Halpern

Monday December 7, 2020
I've Been Thinking:


In September Abu Dhabi announced that they will open an investment office in Israel.

Today State-run Abu Dhabi Investment Office (ADIO) Director General, Tariq bin Hendi told a UAE-Israel conference in Dubai: "It's very exciting for us because we will have that office open in the next few weeks."
They will be opening their office in just a few days.

The excitement is palpable. Abu Dhabi has already made inquiries into investments and they have already setup meetings and lined up several projects in Israel. Israeli investment groups are working hand in hand with Abu Dhabi. These groups identify possible projects and propose them to investors.

We are talking about an injection of hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions of dollars of investments into Israel technology. Israeli tech and Abu Dhabi investment is a tremendous power.

These investments can potentially change the world. It is a marriage made in heaven.

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Saudi Prince Attacks Israel
By Micah Halpern

Sunday December 6, 2020
I've Been Thinking:

Recently Bahrain hosted The Bahrain Security Summit. Present was Israel’s Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi as well as many of the most important players in the Middle East.

Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was the head of Saudi intelligence for more than two decades was there and he spoke. Al Faisal also served for decades as Saudi ambassador to the U.S. and Great Britain. Currently the prince is officially retired but his words carry tremendous weight in Saudi Arabia and he has the ear of the king.

Al Faisal launched a scathing attack on Israel and normalization. He said that there will be no normalization deals needed to help the Palestinians obtain their own independent state.

He described Israel as a "Western colonizing" power. He said Israel has "incarcerated (Palestinians) in concentration camps under the flimsiest of security accusations— young and old, women and men, who are rotting there without recourse to justice. They are demolishing homes as they wish and they assassinate whomever they want."

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Poor PA Investment
By Micah Halpern

Wednesday December 2, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

$1.732 billion is a large sum of money. That sum is the difference between private Palestinian investments flowing out of Palestinian Authority areas and external investments flowing into PA areas.

In other words, people with money living in the Palestinian Authority are investing their money outside the Palestinian Authority. And of all those people who say that they care about the Palestinians are investing very little in the Palestinians. They are not putting their money where their mouths are.

These figures come from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Ghassan Halum, a Palestinian investor explained: “When people go abroad and invest, they usually intend to earn some capital and then return home, but they get used to a certain system and laws, in addition to facilities and privileges. When they return home, the corruption and complications needed to get things done shock them.”

This is not good news. It means that the Palestinian economy is losing billions of dollars annually.

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Secret Mtgs Btw Israel & Turkey
By Micah Halpern

Tuesday December 1, 2020

I've Been Thinking:

Al Monitor, an Arab news outlet headquartered in London, reported that Turkey and Israel are secretly meeting in the hope of re-establishing diplomatic relations and returning their ambassadors. The ambassadors were recalled in 2018, after the United States moved its embassy to Jerusalem.

There is, of course, another motivation.

Under President Donald J. Trump, the United States was not interested in Turkey’s human rights violations and the problems that they were causing - which included teaming up with Russia and Iran in support of Syria.

Turkey has been a public attack dog against Israel.

But now Turkey expects that the Biden administration will not be as sympathetic to them and will not turn a blind eye to these issues.

Turkey believes that, if they warm up to Israel, they will curry favor with the new US administration and with the Biden inner circle.

Al Monitor reported that three meeting took place between Israel and Turkey. In at least one of those meeting, the heads of Turkish and Israeli intelligence were present.

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