Monday September 23, 2019

I've Been Thinking:

Iran is waiting for an American response to their attack on Saudi oilfields and refineries. The Iranian strike resulted in collapsing Saudi oil production by 50% and reducing world oil by 5%.

A combination of 30 drones and cruise missiles launched from Iran into Saudi Arabia was the cause. It was an Iranian response to the west’s sanctions. Now Iran is awaiting the counter by the US and Saudi Arabia.

The verbal US response was not very intimidating. Both the US President Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo both spoke strongly but then couched and trimmed their anger. This tamed response will not be interpreted as a threat by Iran – actually the opposite.

If sanctions are all that the US is intending to enact against Iran – then the Supreme Leader will undoubtedly release another military strike. He is playing a game by pushing the envelope. That is exactly what he did by downing the US drone earlier this summer. The lack of response or a limited response by simply imposing more sanctions led the Supreme Leader to consider and then embark on this attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. The Supreme Leader loves these games and he gets a perverse pleasure out of making the US squirm.

He will continue to play until he is put in his place. He knows that the Saudis cannot do it alone, so he is challenging the US. It seems that he believes that US President Trump cannot or does not have the personal strength to take to blowback from Iran and the rest of the world. The US is taking the easy way out through sanctions.

But know, Iran is going to continue to push the envelope. They will once again strike at a US ally. Maybe they will strike another Saudi refinery or maybe one in the UAE instead.

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