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Wednesday October 1, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Rosh Hashanah, celebrated by Israeli Jews, American Jews and Jews all round the year, is a time of inspiration, introspection and soul searching.
This year's self evaluation is particularly poignant.
Only days ago, Israel's prime minister stepped down from office. As always when politics are in the balance deep existential questions arise.
This year's Israeli elections are coupled with the impending US presidential election.
For American Jews and for Israelis the US election sends shivers down spines. One of the big questions Jews are asking themselves is whether these candidates, one of whom will soon hold the position of most powerful leader in the world, will commit to protect Israel in the face of a true Iranian threat.
Soul searching does not provide answers.
It just raises anxiety levels.
May this be a blessed year for all Americans and for all Israelis.
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Tuesday September 30, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
According to the results of a new vote in Austria, one third of all voters have cast their support behind parties that are far to the right.
This is significant.
18% voted for the Freedom Party.
11% voted for the Alliance for the Future of Austria Party.
That means 29% of Austrians have aligned themselves with the far right.
In the past extreme right wing parties have not cooperated.
The vote itself was historic in many ways.
This is the first time 16 year olds were permitted to go to the polls and cast a ballot for the 183 seats that were up for grabs in this Austrian election.
Austria has approached a crossroad.
Austria has a history of embracing extremism as a response to economic crisis. We should watch and observe as Austria confronts its future.
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Monday September 29, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
In Egypt an appeals court upheld the conviction, but reduced the sentence, of a news editor who wrote a news story about President Mubarak.
The incident took place last March.
The original 6 month sentence was reduced to 2 months, but the conviction was upheld.
The editor, Ibrahim Eissa, was found guilty of threatening national stability by questioning the health of the president.
Indeed, Mubarak's health was in question in March and I was able to bring that fact to the attention of the Western press precisely because Eissa covered the subject.
Egypt is one of the West's most significant allies and one of the chief issues on which that alliance balances is the issue of transition. So if the health of the president is in question, that certainly is a huge issue for the West and for Western decision makers.
Eissa provided a great service, not a disservice.
But I'm a Westerner and that's the way I think.
This entire incident should serve to remind us that Egypt is a not a democracy, Egypt is a dictatorship.
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Monday September 29, 3008
I've Been Thinking:
When I heard the candidates embrace the bailout during the debate, I was surprised.
That would have been the perfect time for both of them to lay the blame elsewhere.
Now that the bailout has come through and now that the polling numbers are clearer, both candidates are more reserved about the bailout.
The candidates lost an opportunity to separate themselves, instead, they will be painted with the same brush.
Even McCain's return to DC was choreographed to insulate the Republican candidate. He was there to lend his hand and to put his shoulder to the wheel. But he did not endorse the program, he was hesitant when discussing it during the debate and is even more so now.
Obama said what he needed to say, that this fix will not help.
Make no mistake about it - if the bailout works both candidates will claim success and if it fails they will both say I told you so.
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Sunday September 28, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
A devastating car bomb blasted downtown Damascus, Syria yesterday.
The bomb killed 17 people.
This was not the first of such incidents to shatter Syria, a country that is normally quiet, a country that has been traditionally held under the thumbnail of a thuggish tyrant.
Many theories abound as to the culprit.
Obviously, the Arab press will point their fingers at Israel.
But when you look at the probable target of this car bomb, Israel does not seem like a likely perpetrator.
The target was probably the offices of Syrian intelligence.
This was probably an Arab on Arab attack.
The perpetrator may have been Hezbollah getting back at the assassination of one of their leaders 2 weeks ago.
Or it may have been one of the Lebanese Palestinian groups upset at Syria.
It may even have been Iranian agents wanting to stimulate instability to insure that Syria and Iran remain close.
Israel is way down the list of probable groups to take aim at this target in Damascus.
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Sunday September 28, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The first debate is over and actually, I was surprised by several things.
I consider this debate to be a tie.
And when McCain ties Obama, that is a victory for McCain.
I was certain that McCain would look old and slow, but he did not.
I was certain that Obama would sound patronizing, but he did not.
Obama is not great at these debates because they are neither prepared nor tele-prompted, but he did surprisingly well.
Now to the most salient point about debates:
Debates are not really about substance.
Debates are about emotions, feelings and perceptions.
When you look at the polls it is clear that Obama comes out on top and that happens regardless of what he says.
For Obama the medium, in this case the media, becomes the message.
McCain has to work much harder to please the public.
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Saturday September 27, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The head of Hezbollah and his followers in Lebanon celebrated Jerusalem day yesterday. And thousands gathered in Iran. And in Gaza there were Hamas sponsored celebrations.
The tone in all three cities was identical.
It was the chants that were different.
In Lebanon Hezbollah chanted:
Israel is the enemy and Palestine extends from the Jordan River to the Red Sea. "That no one has the right to give up one grain, wall or stone of the Holy Land."
In Teheran Iranians chanted:
Death to the Zionists.
This is a pan Muslim issue where everyone must unite against the Zionists.
In Gaza Hamas chanted:
A call for suicide bombers.
Nobody mentioned the beauty or majesty of Jerusalem.
Everyone spoke about murdering Jews.
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Saturday September 27, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The presidential debates are far too overrated.
82% of Americans have already made their presidential decisions.
The other 18% will decide at the very last moment.
The undecided vote is undecided because that is who they are, that is how they live their lives. They spend most of the time in an indecision limbo, vacillating from one side to the other, and only make decisions when forced to. They thrive on waiting for the final moment.
The candidates say much of the same things.
The commentators say much of the same things.
Everyone who has already decided just extols the virtues of their candidate more and more based on the virtues and performances and advertisements of their candidate as opposed to the other guy.
And low and behold, the undecided remain undecided.
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Friday September 26, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The British newspaper The Guardian ran a news piece by Jonathan Steele yesterday that referred back to the visit of US president George Bush to Israel on May 14th to celebrate Israel's 60th birthday.
Steele writes that when Bush was in Jerusalem Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asked for a green light to bomb Iran and was given a red light instead.
Steele's sources are a little questionable, but the idea rings true enough.
Every single meeting between American and Israeli higher ups has the bombing of Iran as a significant part of the agenda.
I will say, however, that the typical response by the US is a yellow light, advising that Israel proceed with caution, rather than a red light.
There are no notes of this meeting. It was truly a private meeting and only afterwards did one of the parties talk to a European leader who then told his staff who leaked the story.
There really is nothing new here.
Israel is working hard on creating plans but cannot and will not act without that green light from the United States.
Right now, that light is stuck on yellow.
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Friday September 26, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Guess who Israeli President Shimon Peres met with the other day.
The answer is Republican vice presidential hopeful Sarah Palin.
They met in New York City at one of the many events that were held in conjunction with the General Assembly of the United Nations.
Both Palin and John McCain were there.
There is little doubt that Palin is using this United Nations opportunity to bolster her foreign policy resume.
But honestly, knowing someone, shaking their hands and saying hello is not experience.
I was happy to see that she did not need a score card to keep track of all the foreigners she was meeting.
The Palin/Peres meet was not official.
They were both at an event organized by Bill Clinton and Peres was there to speak.
Did you get that - Sarah Palin was an invited guest at an event hosted by Bill Clinton.
And on Wednesday when Clinton was interviewed by Larry King he had nothing but good things to say about John McCain.
Somebody is maturing.
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Thursday September 25, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad has hit the American airwaves.
He aims to convince the American public that he is neither an ogre nor a thug. He wants to explain his stance on various issues.
NPR asked Ahmadinejad why the world is against him.
Ahmadinejad asked the interviewer about what world are you speaking? Are you speaking about the 118 members of the Non-Aligned Pact or about the 57 members of the Organization of Islamic States?
The answer is obvious.
Ahmadinejad is asserting that the vast majority of the world rejects US control and US priorities. He is saying that United States support for Israel has destroyed the reputation of the US around the world.
In his own words: "Is the problem of the U.S. government the Zionist regime?"
"I believe the extremity to which the U.S. government has gone to extend support to the Zionist regime has caused the U.S. government problems around the world."
Ahmadinejad is so wrong.
The same nations that hate Israel hate Americans and for the same reasons.
It might be worth his while to think about that.
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Thursday September 25, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
It was a brilliant move.
John McCain has called off the campaign for a few days,
He has suggested pushing off the first debate between presidential hopefuls.
McCain is saying that both he and Barack Obama should go to Washington, DC and try to reach across the aisle to fix the economic problems confronting the United States.
Obama is in a lose-lose situation.
If he does not accept it will seem that the Democrats care more about the campaign than about helping the American people.
But let's be clear about this:
The candidates cannot and will not solve the problems.
This is not a quick fix situation and neither candidate has a real solution.
I give McCain an A for effort in showing support for the American people.
And I give him an A+ for finally demonstrating his political savvy.
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Wednesday September 24, 2008
Column:
Ahmadinejad is many things but he is far from crazy.
The present and future ruler of Iran is totally in control of his faculties. Thinking of him a raging lunatic is a serious mistake. Thinking of him as an out of control maniac is a serious miscalculation.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is dangerous, very dangerous. He is not dangerous because he is deranged, he is dangerous because he has a brilliant grasp of the way the world works. And the way the world works is not the way Ahmadinejad wants it to work. So Ahmadinejad wants to change the world.
It's that simple.
To discount Ahmadinejad because he rants and raves and makes statements that are so outside the realm of believable that he sounds crazy only puts us, his non-believers, at risk. To minimize his power and his importance as the conveyer of ideas to his many followers is to misunderstand the power that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad truly wields.
There are people who trust his word and believe his rhetoric. There are people who have fallen under the mystique he has created about himself. But there aren't enough people like that. Ahmadinejad is trying to drum up more followers, more believers, and to achieve that aim, he ratchets up his rhetoric.
Ahmadinejad is an anti-intellectual intellectual. He deliberately presents himself as an anti-intellectual, as someone against the intelligentsia and the wealthy elite of Iran. In reality the leader of Iran is a true intellectual, schooled deeply in history and literature.
So when Ahmadinejad makes his statements about Israel or when he denies the Holocaust he is not speaking out of ignorance. He is using buzz words. He know that the words "Israel" and "Holocaust" elicit a visceral, a palpable, reaction in the Arab Muslim world. Ahmadinejad has a reason for what sounds like madness.
His objective is to lead a united Islam under his control.
Ahmadinejad does what he must do to attain the status he seeks. Certainly Ahmadinejad knows that there was a Holocaust in Europe, he knows that the Holocaust resulted in the murder and destruction of the Jewish community of Europe. He also knows that the way to achieve his objective is to feed off of the conspiracy theories that thrive in the Muslim world. And he knows that in order to obtain standing in the greater Muslim Arab world he must pay lip service to the Palestinian cause.
Ahmadinejad does what he believes because he himself is a believer. He rejects the premise that a non-Muslim body can control Muslim land. And there is no more Muslim land than Jerusalem. He rejects Israel's very presence because Israel has shattered Islamic hegemony over the land. And he cannot tolerate or condone a situation that allows Zionists to exist on holy land and a situation that even allows the Zionists to control the holy sites in the Holy Land.
Ahmadinejad acts the way he does because in his own world, he is politically savvy. He will never speak the word "Israel" or use the term "Jewish State" because, surprisingly, the Koran does not always view the Jew negatively. In fact, in the Koran there is at times an intimation that the Jew is valuable and important. Instead, Ahmadinejad uses the term "Zionist entity." That is why he so carefully differentiates between "Jews" and "Zionists."
If there was no Holocaust there is no justification for creating the Jewish State. By rejecting the Holocaust Ahmadinejad takes away the moral, ethical and historical grounds upon which Israel was created. The truth has nothing to do with the reality when you are a motivational Muslim extremist. Theories are built upon emotion and emotion, in Ahmadinejad's case, is used to stoke the passions that will enable him to rise as a leader.
Ahmadinejad is not crazy. He is ruthless.
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Tuesday September 23, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Syria has just increased their military presence on the border with Lebanon. 8000 Syrian special forces have been added to the area near Abboudieh.
Lebanon is very worried.
Lebanon has gone on alert.
What is at issue here?
The biggest issue is what Syria wants to achieve with this military buildup.
Syria asserts that they are just cracking down on smugglers.
I don't buy it.
While it is true that there is some serious smuggling that takes place over the Lebanese - Syrian border one hardly needs special forces to enforce a crack down.
Syria is out to frighten.
Syria is out to frighten Lebanese leaders and the Lebanese people.
Syria wants Lebanon to remember who the real boss of the region is.
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Tuesday September 23, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Sarah Palin never got to deliver her speech at the Anti-Ahmadinejad Rally that was held outside the United Nations yesterday.
I read the transcript, it was an excellent speech.
This is probably the most important section of the speech:
"Ahmadinejad denies that the Holocaust ever took place. He dreams of being an agent in a "Final Solution" - the elimination of the Jewish people. He has called Israel a "stinking corpse" that is "on its way to annihilation."
Elie Wiesel did deliver his speech to the large crowd.
In his speech, Elie Wiesel told Ahmadinejad to go back home.
He spoke to Ahmadinejad and said the United Nations is not the place for you.
Ahmadinejad heard neither the Wiesel speech nor the Palin speech.
That doesn't matter, and like many other, he will read the transcripts.
What matters is that the message is getting out.
The message is that Ahmadinejad is a polarizing agent.
The message is that Iran is a force that polarizes.
Even Iranians, leaders and the people, are starting to speak about just how polarizing Ahmadinejad really is.
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Monday September 22, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinian situation is ripe for a civil war.
The rhetoric is ratcheting up higher and higher.
Armed tensions are becoming more and more frequent.
Hamas is becoming more powerful in Gaza and the West Bank
The Palestinian Authority is realizing that the only way to control Hamas is through an armed re-taking of Gaza.
Last summer Hamas threw Fatah out of Gaza.
Fatah wants to do the same to Hamas.
If Fatah actually does attempt to oust Hamas from Gaza it will cost them many lives.
It will be the most significant step Palestinians have taken to date to actually facilitate a state.
But as Israeli statesman Abba Eban frequently said: "The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."
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Monday September 22, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Today is Anti-Ahmadinejad day.
Today is the day thousands of Americans will collect in the streets surrounding the United Nations to voice outrage at Ahmadinejad and at his policies.
It's the right thing to do.
These rallies work.
These rallies have an impact.
They do not change Ahmadinejad, but they do let our leaders know how concerned we are about Iran.
They let other countries know that there is good and there is bad and there are people who are willing to stand up against bad.
Most importantly, these rallies say that we care.
We care enough to take a stand against thugs and against evil leaders.
We stand together in order to make a difference.
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Sunday September 21, 2008
I'm Predicting:
On Friday the Ayatollah Khamenei told Iranian politicians to stop their bickering and infighting and to support the current government.
That makes it the second time in two weeks that the Supreme Leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Khamenei, has come out with a public statement that seems to confirm that Ahmadinejad will again be elected the president of Iran.
There still continues to be a hope that reformers will win over the heart and mind of the Ayatollah and wrestle his support from Ahmadinejad.
But as every announcement is proclaimed and as every day passes that hope seems farther and farther away.
We might as well get used to it.
We are facing another four years of Ahmadinejad.
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Sunday September 21, 20008
I've Been Thinking:
The situation in Iraq is complicated.
It just became more complicated.
The United States is building a democracy in Iraq.
And now this:
Last week a member of Iraq's parliament named Mithal al Alusi was arrested.
Al Alusi was arrested as he returned from a Terrorism Conference in Israel.
It was the 4th year al Alusi had attended the Conference. But this year he was arrested, charged under a law enacted by Saddam Hussein law in 1969.
The law falls under the category of treason, of dealing with Israeli agents.
Important questions arise:
If the United States is building a democracy in Iraq, how can the emerging democracy (Iraq) or its sponsor (the United States) tolerate such blatantly
anti-Israel behavior?
How can the United States condone this skewed sense of justice? An Iraqi member of government, concerned with fighting the war against terror is charged under the very law that was created by a despotic ruler in order to intimidate and murder innocent Iraqi citizens.
This is an issue that must be confronted.
It falls to the candidates to consider this issue now.
It remains for the next president of the United States to rectify the situation.
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Saturday September 20, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Iran finished an air force drill on Friday.
The exercise began on Monday.
The objective was to test the readiness of the Iranian air force and the capabilities of Iranian land to air systems.
The main reason for the drill was internal Iranian and inner Muslim propaganda.
Secondary was the threat of an upcoming attack from the United States and or from Israel.
Iran wanted to show their own soldiers and people that they are prepared.
Along the way, they also gave everyone else who was watching a peek at some of the weapons that they have and some of the means that they will use to stop an attack.
But that was not the prime objective.
This was an exercise to shore up the Iranian people and the army.
It was meant to be a psychological boost, to lift the people to the heights of the rhetoric they are being bombarded with from their leaders.
My assessment:
Iran has decent defense systems, but should it ever come to that, those systems can and will be breached by Israel.
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Saturday September 20, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The political race is heating.
As you follow the money trail you can begin to see just how hot it is.
The Obama campaign has decided to invest $39 million in ads in Florida.
They are vying for the 27 electoral votes Florida holds.
There are about 1 1/2 million voters in Florida.
Many of them are traditional Democratic voters, blacks, Jews and Hispanics.
But over the past few weeks McCain has picked up 5% - 7% of the vote and turned Florida from a Democrat leaning state to a Republican leaning state.
If Obama can get back the 27 votes of Florida then his money was well spent.
Florida can clinch the election for Barack Obama.
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Friday September 19, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Archbishop Desmond Tutu, a Noble Prize recipient, held gave a press conference yesterday.
Pay attention to what he said:
"I think the West, quite rightly, is feeling contrite, penitent for its awful connivance with the Holocaust."
"Now when you are contrite, when you are penitent, you are then ready to make amends, and we call that penance. The West is penitent, the penance is being paid by the Palestinians."
And then Tutu said that the world does not criticize Israel. "That silence begets complicity."
Tutu's message is clear, it is also wrong.
Tutu lifted a page from the Yasser Arafat handbook of historical injustice.
I do not think there is a more criticized country in the world than Israel. Just count the number of UN proposals and resolutions and discussions about Israel.
The way to help the Palestinians is to help them realize the importance of signing a peace treaty with Israel.
The very first step in the process is clamping down on Hamas and other terrorist groups.
Desmond Tutu is way off base here.
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Friday September 19, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
And now the anti-Ahmadinejad rally will go on not only without Hillary Clinton, but also without Sarah Palin.
According to sources, the Obama campaign took exception to the fact that Sarah Palin would be addressing the rally.
They applied significant pressure on the Conference of Presidents, the organizers of the rally, who, after careful consideration chose to un-invite the Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin.
It's hard to get a straight story from the people involved in this non-partisan turned very partisan and political and now very un-PC event.
The way I piece it together Palin's presence at an anti-Ahmadinejad event was an enormous threat to the Democratic party and the Democratic candidates.
It was so enormous a threat that tremendous pressure was applied to nix her.
As opposed to getting rid of everyone, everyone should have stood together, shoulder to shoulder, united against Ahmadinejad.
What a botched opportunity.
What misplaced priorities.
What a sad commentary on American life.
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Thursday September 18, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Congratulations to Tzipi Livni, winner of the Kadima party primaries in Israel.
Livni is now in line to become the next prime minister of Israel.
On Sunday Ehud Olmert will resign as will his entire government.
President Shimon Peres will then interview all the political parties in Israel and ask the most capable party to create a coalition of over 60 Knesset members.
That party will in all probability be Kadima.
Livni will have 42 days to put together a government, it will probably be a coalition government.
Several important observations:
Livni is a very capable woman.
Livni is new on the scene but she has experience in politics and foreign policy.
Livni is weakest on security issues.
The PA was pleased that Livni defeated her rival, Shaul Mofaz.
So is much of the Arab world.
The Arab world considers Mofaz to be more a hawk that Livni.
Be careful what you wish for.
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Thursday September 18, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Hillary Clinton shot herself in the foot (yes, that is a hunting metaphor).
Clinton has cancelled an appearance at an anti-Ahmadinejad protest at the UN on Tuesday.
Clinton's staff said that the reason for the cancellation is that Sarah Palin is going to be at the event.
Clinton's said that now it has become a partisan event.
There is a pretty simple calculus here:
You are either in the camp against Ahmadinejad or you are in the wrong camp.
The Jewish community, especially the New York Jewish community, is particularly upset by Clinton's decision.
Traditionally, Jews vote Democratic.
But traditions change and mistakes count - literally and figuratively.
New York is fast becoming a battleground state.
Among New York women only 2% separates the parties right now, among general voters the separation is only 5%.
Only a few months ago, in June, there was an 18% Democratic margin.
Clinton has made a colossal blunder.
Not just for herself, but for Democrats.
Nor just for Jews, but for all people of conscience.
Not just for New York, but for the country.
At issue is the state of American priorities and values.
Everyone in the free world should be concerned about Ahmadinejad.
Everyone, especially high ranking politicians and presidential candidates.
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Wednesday September 17, 2008
Column:
Mickey Mouse is getting mauled in the Muslim world.
It all began when Hamas children's television transformed the lovable Disney character into a Palestinian character, renamed him Farfu and had him beaten up and pummeled within inches of his life by Israeli soldiers. It was in very poor taste. It was immoral. Co-opting one of the most universally recognized and loved Disney characters and turning him into a creature that preaches rage and teaches hatred, murder and revenge was unconscionable.
The world cried out, the Magic Kingdom threatened lawsuits but the Palestinians persisted. Mickey Mouse recently re-appeared in a program produced by Palestinian television and geared for children. In this go round Mickey and his friends remain in the background as the child host of the program educates his audience on the subject of the borders of Palestine, omitting any mention of Israel.
Now the situation has taken a more adult and more sensational turn.
A leading Sunni cleric has come out with a Fatwa, a religious edict, declaring that all mice, including and especially Mickey Mouse, are repulsive and are to be destroyed. The cleric behind this religious pronouncement is named Mohammad al Munajid. The Fatwa was made public during an interview on Al Majd TV.
Al Munajid was not just grabbing headlines, there is reason to his madness.
This sheik is no stranger to the West, on the contrary, he is conversant in and very aware of Western culture and Western television programming. Al Munajid was stationed in Washington, DC as a diplomat in the Saudi Embassy.
According to this cleric Islamic law is unambiguous about mice. Mice are repulsive, corruptive, creatures. Al Munajid maintains that Disney purposefully transformed these vile rodents into lovable characters instead of portraying them as the awful creatures that they truly are. Al Munajid quotes the Shaariya. He says that mice are linked with Satan. He says that mice set fire to the house, that mice are the soldiers of Satan.
These are pretty harsh attack against a defenseless cartoon character.
It's easy to simply respond by saying that Munajid is corrupting the essence of Disney. Right now, however, a little perspective is essential in order to truly understand what is behind these controversial, confrontational comments.
Sunni cleric Mohammad al Munajid is a radical. He is radically anti-Western, radically anti-American and radically anti everything that is not Muslim. He is an extremist. He lives off anger. He is the Sunni sheik who gained notoriety during the Beijing Olympics by calling the games satanic and by calling them the Bikini Olympics. Yes, he is that Muslim, he is that character.
When Walt Disney first conceived of a mouse named Mickey there was some fear on the past of the company about how the world would connect with a mouse. Screaming and running away is exactly the opposite of the desired effect. Those fears proved unfounded. Mickey Mouse entered the homes and the hearts of children and their parents all across America and around the world.
And some of the homes that allowed Mickey to enter are located in the Muslim Arab part of the world. And that frightens Sheikh Mohammad al Munajid. And that is why it was not only permitted to corrupt the image of Mickey Mouse in the Muslim world, that is why it was encouraged. And that is why Mickey Mouse has now been banned.
Mickey Mouse deserves better. So do the children of Islam.
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Tuesday September 16, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Syrian leadership has begun a strategic move to try to retake domestic control.
Over the past few years Iran has insinuated itself into much of the daily power of Syria. Iran often uses proxies to accomplish their tasks but in Syria they have had alot of direct involvement, too.
But Syrian leader Bashar Assad is starting to feel that far too much power is falling under the control of Iran.
Bashar Assad cannot speak about this to Iran, nor can he expel Iran entirely.
Bashar Assad is too dependent on Iran.
The one way Assad has to strike out at Iran is through the proxies.
The proxies are small and weak and operate purely at the blessing of Assad. Now Assad wants them muted.
The best example of exerting his power over a proxy is to choose Hamas.
A few days ago Hisham Labadani, the secretary to Khallad Mashaal the head of the Hamas, was publicly executed.
This is no small event, it sent shock waves throughout the entire region.
Hitting such a public Hamas leader in broad daylight and dragging him from his car in a city square was a strong message.
There have been rumors that Khallad Mashaal and Hamas leaders were preparing to relocate to Sudan.
This may be Assad's way of nudging or pushing Hamas to get them out.
Assad is taking back Syria.
The process will be slow and I would not get too excited about change or a major Syrian shift away from Iran just yet, but this is definitely a significant step toward Syrian independence.
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Tuesday September 16, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The price of oil dropped to $95 a barrel yesterday.
That's news - but not the news we have been reading about in papers and hearing on TV and radio.
That's news that the candidates should be capitalizing on, they should be explaining the why and how of dropping oil prices.
Dropping oil prices is the most significant, immediate, tangible issue confronting voters, yet the significance of this drop seems to be eluding both candidates.
The price of oil has dropped 35% since its peak just a few weeks ago in July when it nearly hit $150.
The price of oil has dropped despite hurricane IKE which threatened to devastate Gulf oil production.
This is nothing short of enormous.
Candidates, speak out.
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Monday September 15, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
For weeks the rumors out of Washington, DC were that Israel would not get the bunker blaster bombs.
The rumors were that the people advising the Administration did not think that Iran was enough of a threat to warrant the bombs.
The rumors were wrong.
On Friday the Administration signed off on a deal where Israel will get 1,000 more GPU 30 bunker blaster bombs.
GPU stands for Guided Bomb Units. They are GPS guided and have a 50% chance of hitting their mark at 5-8 yards from the target. Also in the package are 28,000 LAW (Light Anti Tank Weapons) missiles.
This deal is very important especially as Russia continues its aid to Iran.
Israel needs to improve its arsenal.
If there is any chance of checking Iran in their race for nuclear weapons, this is it.
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Monday September 15, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Watching the polls can make you dizzy.
The finish line is far away and the polls can only tell us so much this far in advance.
National results are almost irrelevant, that is important point to remember.
The important polls are for the electoral college.
Over the past 5 days the polls are telling us that McCain has picked up 50 electoral votes while Obama has lost 10 essential electoral votes.
As of yesterday the electoral votes placed McCain at 227, Obama at 207.
According to the polls, a huge swing took place over the weekend.
Essential states that were thought a toss up are now leaning towards McCain.
Indiana with 7votes and Florida with 27votes are the key states.
There are more states to come.
Remember, forget the national polls.
Concentrate on the electoral polls.
That's the way to get a handle on what's happening.
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Sunday September 14, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami gave a speech in Western Iran yesterday during which he aggressively criticized the Ahmadinejad regime.
Khatami led Iran from 1997 to 2005.
The next election in Iran is scheduled for June 12, 2009.
This attack by Khatami was the beginning of a reformer front to wrestle the leadership away from the Ahmadinejad camp.
Khatami said that Iran is unnecessarily in danger because of the aggressive speechifying by Ahmadinejad.
Khatami asserted that the published inflation rate of 26.9 percent is inaccurate and falls far under rates real inflation numbers.
Reformers in Iran want change.
Reformers in Iran do not want a liberal democracy or love fest with the West.
Reformers in Iran do not want the kind of change that the West wants.
Reformers in Iran want Ahmadinejad out and a stable economy in.
That is the platform Reformers used to make made headway in the recent parliamentary elections. And that is their tact now.
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Sunday September 14, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
There is something disingenuous about political ads.
Many ads push the boundaries between falsities and truth, but that is politics and such are national elections and there is no way to really change that.
The most disturbing issue for me is exploitation. One candidate's ads exploit the other candidate's ads and all the ads are exploited by the media. No one, especially the media, take into account that candidates are politicians and politicians are people and people change their minds.
Politicians grow and learn and actually do take new stands.
While it is not a lie to reflect on the earlier stand of a politician/candidate, neither is it the complete truth if that person has taken a new stand.
And change, as we are reminded, is not a bad thing.
The hope is that as a politician becomes more mature and approaches closer to power, their perspective will change. The hope is that a candidate's point of view will become more responsible. The hope is that as a nominee gets closer and closer to the presidency and is exposed to more nuanced and deeper analysts and advisers their own analysis will come into sharper focus.
Bottom line is that the growth is good, it is part of the maturation process.
Political ads, however, are stuck in infancy.
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Saturday September 13, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Russia is at it again.
Russia will continue to do whatever it wants unless the Russians are directly confronted by a superior force.
Russia reacts to actions not just words.
I am not suggesting war or attacks, I am suggesting moves and counter moves.
According to a report in the Russian news agency Interfax, the head of the Russian Navy, Admiral Vladimir Vissotski, met with Syrian General Taleb al-Barri in Russia. The discussion centered upon mutual naval cooperation between the Syrians and the Russians.
The Russians are playing games.
The Russians are pushing buttons.
The United States has yet to issue a clear and real response.
Think of it as a cross between a game of Chess and a game of Risk.
Russia is totally out matching the United States.
The United States has no counter moves against Russia.
Unfortunately, it looks like the West is playing checkers again.
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Saturday September 13, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Convention bounce in the polls is beginning to taper off.
Now it looks as if the Republicans are slightly on top.
Several weeks ago Democratic strategists would never have thought it possible. Democratic forecasters never thought that the Republicans would out-bounce them.
Democratic forecasters could not foresee a situation whereby the majority of US voters would find a divorced 72 year old Republican appealing.
Surprise, surprise, the strategists were wrong.
Now the Democrats will intensify their message.
Democratic ad campaigns will become more vicious and biting.
The polls might flip again in the next 7 weeks.
But it will be tight.
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Friday September 12, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The US Consul General in Jerusalem answers directly to the Secretary of State. Even though the US Ambassador to Israel is posted in Tel Aviv, the position of Consul General is like that of an Ambassador.
Yesterday John Walles, the United States Consul General in Jerusalem, did what diplomats call putting your foot in your mouth.
Or maybe it was intentional and planned.
In an interview with the Palestinian newspaper Al Ayam, Walles said that in a deal spearheaded by the United States, in conjunction with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, it was agreed upon to give East Jerusalem to the Palestinians. He said that the news should be made public and that, in essence, it was a done deal.
Even if it is a done deal, Al Ayam is hardly the forum to make the announcement.
The Israelis saw red.
They reacted by saying that Jerusalem is not even on the table. And when it is in the table, there will be a special committee to deal with it.
Walles was creating a new status quo for the Palestinians.
The Consul General was most certainly acting on the advice of Washington, he is not a news making type person and it is not a news making type position.
What it was, was certainly not very diplomatic and as the kids say, "not nice!"
Now Israel and the US have an insurmountable problem.
How do you create incentives for Palestinian leadership to tow any line once they know that under any and all circumstances Jerusalem will be delivered?
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Friday September 12, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
All week the price per barrel of oil has flirted around $100.
Sometimes it was a little more, sometimes a little less.
It was one of those flirtations that makes me happy inside.
In July the price of a barrel of oil was $147.
Now, two months later, oil has dropped 30%.
My question is:
Where are the candidates on this?
Where is the media on this?
This is real news.
The price of oil spoiled the summer for most American families.
The situation even spawned a new word: stay-cation.
We are starting to see some relief at the pump, but have yet to see other prices come down.
The candidates should be talking about the important need to keep prices down by continuing to conserve.
Because we used less, the supply went up, the demand went down and prices dropped.
The high price of oil killed the demand for gas, it's as simple as that.
The candidates should be congratulating Americans for a job well done.
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Thursday September 11, 2008
Column:
One of the best ways to evaluate a society is by examining the humor of that society.
Freud asserted that in every joke there is a kernel of truth. I would assert that there is much, much more than simply a kernel. There is profound expression in humor. Societies use humor as a way of calling out, of crying for help, of pleading for law and order, a way to save their victims from untenable situations. The twist is that the call, the cry and the plea are accompanied not by tears, but by laughter.
In many circumstances the joke, humor, is the only way to actually raise essential societal questions while also allowing people to live through a situation that should be viewed as crazy and out of the ordinary, but that has become their everyday norm.
Jewish jokes have set the standard for gentle but honest self-deprecation. Jewish jokes were also the first to tackle indelicate situations in a digestible way. The jokes, written by Jews and about Jews are a window into the pain and pathos of the Jewish people during specific times in history. Originally intended for Jewish audiences, the genre has now become familiar to all ethnic groups and is a staple of many comedic performances.
It's okay to laugh at a Jewish joke, even if you're not Jewish. It's acceptable. In many cases, it's expected. That is not the case in all societies.
The Jewish people have a heightened sense of humor. Jews have taken to expressing themselves through humor even in the most horrific of situations. Sometimes, that humor is used as a defense mechanism. Sometimes it is a release from the tensions of life, or of death, surrounding them.
This poignant and powerful tool called humor was even used to help navigate through the horrors of the Holocaust. In Nazi Germany the Jews were being murdered. There was no escape from the German death machine. And yet the period is replete with jokes about Hitler and his allies, about Poles, about Lithuanians and Germans and everyone else. There were jokes about the murderers, about the allies, about the collaborators and even about fellow Jews.
Even the movie Cabaret, a story about the sidebar atrocities perpetrated by German Nazis during the Holocaust, makes its point through humor. The cabaret inside the movie Cabaret is the vehicle for humor, the cabaret is the release valve, it is the time and place where one is not only permitted, but encouraged, to laugh.
Humor provides people a tool and the ability to critique even in the most oppressive societies, even in the Muslim world.
In most of the Muslim world there is no free press, there is no freedom of expression and there is no permission to offer critique. Muslims living in Muslim countries do not have the right to freely assemble or to publicly redress grievances. Freedoms considered essential by Americans and by most of the Western world do not exist in the Muslim world.
But humor does exist. Humor in the Muslim world is an underground movement. Jokes never have authors, they just have a life. It's safer that way, so when a joke really takes off no one knows where it came from and when it will stop. Internet joke listings and SMS cell phone messaging have propelled Muslim humor. There is even an Iranian joke that ends with Ahmadinejad receiving a joke about himself on his own cell phone and getting so angry that he purges the cell phone company's entire SMS bureau. That's funny. That's a joke that was written by and for Iranians, but made its way to the Western world.
Most of the Iranian jokes that have made their way through Iran portray Ahmadinejad as a buffoon. They are mostly about the Iranian leader and his interaction with Western society. There are, of course, a good number of Iranian jokes about George Bush.
Many of the jokes that pervade the Arab world in general deal with Ahmadinejad. They also deal with the previous henchmen and thugs aka former leaders of Arab Muslim countries, leaders who can no longer retaliate against the humor. By and large Arab leaders found jokes to be offensive and called them criminal acts against the state. They said jokes foment anti-state feelings. Saddam Hussein and Yasser Arafat fell into that category. So does Muammar Qadaffi, despite the new relationship between the United States and Libya. So do most of the monarchs and dictators still ruling the Middle East.
Humor is not just political commentary. It is a panacea that allows people in oppressed and in free societies to wake up in the morning and go to sleep at night. It allows us to laugh until we cry.
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Wednesday September 10, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Israeli security heads are impressed.
According to reports given to the Israeli Cabinet, the heads of Israeli security are impressed by the progress the Palestinian Authority is making in cracking down on Hamas in the West Bank.
Yuval Diskin, head of the Shin Bet which is Israel's equivalent to the FBI, reported marked improvements in and optimism for the PA's operations and their confrontations with Hamas. Diskin make note of the fact that major Hamas charitable agencies and organizations, really fronts for terrorist activities, have been closed down.
Hamas uses cultural and educational centers as a way to funnel funds and plan and organize attacks against Israel and other Palestinians. Right now the PA is deeply concerned that Hamas is plotting to overtake the West Bank like they did in Gaza. That concern in well placed.
At the same time, Tuesday night, in Gaza, Hamas apprehended two members of Fatah employed as part of Abbas' presidential guard who were carrying huge amounts of explosives on their way to attack Israel.
Hamas is cracking down and the Palestinian Authority is cracking down.
Each in their own way.
Each to advance their own needs and best interests.
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Wednesday September 10, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Senator Joe Lieberman skipped yesterday's Democratic Leaders Caucus in DC. Odds are that he will also miss the next few sessions, at least until the presidential elections in November.
In the eyes of many former colleagues, Lieberman has gone too far.
By addressing the Republican National Convention last week this former Democrat-turned-Independent crossed the line in the eyes of many members of his former party.
The truth, however, is that those same people had already abandoned Lieberman during his senatorial bid. They had sided with another Democrat forcing Lieberman to run for and win the state election as an Independent running against both a Democrat and a Republican.
Joe Lieberman crossed the aisle and embraced John McCain because Lieberman sees a staunch contrast between Obama and McCain. And Joe Lieberman is not afraid to stand alongside the man he believes will be the best president for the United States of America.
It appears that no one else in the Democratic Caucus has the backbone of Senator Joe Lieberman.
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Tuesday September 9, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Russia's Atomic energy agency Atomstroiexport announced yesterday that Busher, the nuclear plant they are building for Iran, will open by year's end.
Busher is a 1000 megawatt light water nuclear power plant.
In a press announcement Russian head Leonid Reznikov said that the plant will be "irreversible" by the end of the year,
Yesterday I saw some of the newest pictures, courtesy of the Russians.
The plant is a modern, up-to-date, sophisticated technical facility.
In exchange for building the plant the Russians have received over a billion dollars from the Iranians.
Once the Busher plant is complete the many other nuclear power plants in Iran will all fall in line, all that remain are a few finishing touches.
The Iranians have been hesitant to finish work on other projects for fear of an attack by Israel or other Western countries.
An attack is less likely on Busher because the Russian are on site.
The situation is getting more and more interesting.
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Tuesday September 9, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Anyone waiting for a Clinton versus Palin series of attacks is, I think, off base.
According to his blog in the New Republic, Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s former and most influential adviser, agrees with me, even if not for the same reasons.
It does Clinton no good to confront Palin.
# 1: Palin uses Clinton as a political role model and all 40 million people who heard the Republican vice presidential nominee speak at the Convention remember that.
# 2: It does not serve well for Clinton in her position as a future candidate to attack Sarah Palin on anything other than policy. And when it comes to policy issues, Clinton can make her point and never mention Palin.
Clinton will stay on point where ever she is, simply addressing Democratic versus Republican issues.
Entering a cat fight with Sarah Palin will only make Hillary Clinton look bad and Hillary Clinton is too smart to be lured into that trap by the Obama campaign.
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Monday September 8, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
China, Iran and Thailand just launched a joint satellite using a Chinese rocket.
The official report is that the satellite is a telecommunications satellite.
All three countries they say suffer from natural disasters and the images sent from the satellite will help them confront and assist in saving people.
Iran and China are working closely on this and other projects. Ahmadinejad visited China over the weekend and confirmed that there is a very close relationship between Iran and China. He met with Chinese president Hu Jintau and he was there for the opening of the Paralympics.
China and Iran hope to build better relations.
China and Iran intend to oust the United States and the West from their long held positions as world leaders in astrotechnology.
Thailand is just along for the ride.
Whoever controls space will control the much of the earth.
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Monday September 8, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
On Meet The Press on Sunday morning, Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden taunted Republican Vice Presidential candidate Governor Sarah Palin.
He said he wants to know her policies and perspectives.
He said he thinks she will be a formidable debater and looks forward to the vice presidential debate at Wash U in St. Louis on October 2nd.
Debates will not prove to be Biden strong points.
In a debate, brevity is crucial.
Having watched Biden for years and Palin for a little more than a week I will predict that Palin will stay on point and that Biden will ramble.
Biden is a very capable speaker but never when there is stop watch.
In the Senate he always runs over time and has to be asked to stop before reaching a conclusion. Joe Biden has charisma and experience and presence and a poor sense of time.
Palin says what she has to say and crinkles her nose when making an important point. Sarah Palin has natural charm and presence and is being coached in the basics of media presentation and performance.
The candidates have a month to hone their skills and improve their weak spots.
I, too, am looking forward to the October 2nd debate.
I will be looking at style, substance and structure in this debate.
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Sunday September 7, 2008
I'm Predicting:
Today Iran announced that they will hold elections on June 12, 2009.
I predict that Ahmadinejad will have a hands down victory.
Also today, The Sunday Times of London printed a very disturbing report about how Russia is intensifying its nuclear assistance to Iran. The report says that nuclear materials and know how is on its way to Iran and Russia will be inviting Iranian scientists to Moscow for instruction and training.
This is a strong prediction.
An Ahmadinejad victory and Russian support for Iran are disturbing, but not surprising or new news.
The new news is that these events area being reported in the Iranian press and The Sunday Times.
Russia wants to turn the screws on the US and the best way to do that is by intensifying their nuclear aid to Iran.
The future is looking less and less good.
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Sunday September 7, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Democrats have womped the Republicans in voter registration since 2006. That small and overlooked issue may be the secret to a Democratic victory in November.
Democrats have added 2 million new voters in 28 states to their rolls. Republicans seem to have lost 344, 000 voters in those same states.
Those numbers show only a small part of the story, it is the state by state numbers that are truly baffling.
In Pennsylvania, which is a real battle ground state, Democrats have added 375,000 new voters compared to117,000 new Republican voters.
In North Carolina, Democrats added 167,000 to the measly Republican 36,000.
According to The Associated Press there are 42 million registered Democrats in the United States compared to 31 million registered Republicans.
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Saturday September 6, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Israel quietly transferred 1,000 rifles with 10,000 rounds of ammunition to the Palestinians last week.
The transfer was conducted via Jordan so that the entire arrangement would be easier and quieter and so that no questions would be asked.
The Israelis hope to bolster Abbas, but these moves can backfire.
That's what happened in 1990 when the weapons that Israel transferred to the Palestinians were used by the Palestinians to turn on Israel.
Tensions seem to be on the rise with Israel and Abbas.
And yet, Israel continues to make concessions.
Maybe Israeli leadership sees something I do not see.
Maybe they see a light at the end of the tunnel.
I see a longer tunnel.
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Saturday September 6, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Ahmadinejad gave an interview to the Japanese press.
The Iranian leader said he looks forward to "the" new US president who will have an entirely new policy toward Iran.
Ahmadinejad offered serious advise to the US presidential candidates.
The Iranian leader told them to focus on domestic problems and to stop meddling in international affairs where they do not belong.
Ahmadinejad said he looks forward to a new relationship with the United States.
The Iranian leader has not been paying careful enough attention to US politics.
Obama's foreign policy team does not advocate becoming friends with Iran. Obama's team only advocates talking with you enemies.
Even if Obama does become the next US president the Iranian president will be in for a serious reality jolt.
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Friday September 5, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Not long ago Israel sounded an alert:
Hezbollah was targeting Israelis and Israeli targets around the world.
Precautions were taken.
And several terror attacks were aborted and terror cells were discovered.
The most recently aborted Hezbollah-led terrorist attack against Israelis was this week, in Toronto Canada.
A plot to attack El Al crew members was uncovered.
The plan was to kidnap the crew members staying at the Sheraton Centre Hotel in downtown Toronto.
After the plot was detected authorities alerted El Al crews and other Israelis and advised altering their routines and routes.
The plotters were arrested.
Expect more. Hezbollah will try and try again.
Hezbollah has promised retaliation for the assassination of Imad Mugniyeh, the chief of Hezbollah operations who was blown up in a car bomb in Damascus this past February.
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Friday September 5, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Both the democratic presidential candidate and the democratic vice presidential candidate have been sending out seriously conflicting messages on the question of AIPAC.
The candidates responded to a question about the inconsistency of the Obama statements during the AIPAC conference and a question about his qualifications which was asked after the event.
Joe Biden was angry, he said that AIPAC does not represent either America or Israel and that there are broader voices in American Jewry than AIPAC.
Yesterday an Obama spokesman said that Barack Obama has a very good relationship with AIPAC and has had this relationship for a very long time.
Stay on point, gentlemen, stay on point.
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Thursday September 4, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Palestinian Authority has crossed the limits with their government sponsored, educational TV programming.
Palestinian Media Watch has just released the video of a quiz show for Palestinian children centering on Palestinian geography.
The assumption on which each and every question is based is that Israel does not exist.
Poof, Israel has just gone and disappeared off the face of the map, in this case, literally.
This is not happening on Hamas TV.
This is happening on the established Palestinian Authority TV station which is supervised and sponsored by Abbas, the Palestinian leader now engaged in peace negotiations with Israel that are sponsored by the United States.
The premise of the show is that Palestine controls the entire land where Israel now stands.
Sample question # 1: Name 3 Palestinian ports.
Answer: Haifa, Ashdod and Gaza. And then the host added Ashkelon and Eilat.
Sample question # 2: What is the size of Palestine.
Answer: 27000 square kilometers. But the truth is that the West Bank and Gaza are only 6220 square kilometers.
It goes on and on. Only one conclusion can be drawn.
The educational message of liberal Palestinian leadership is similar, almost identical, to that of extremist leaders.
The only issue dividing the groups is the question of whether or not to negotiate with Israel in order to achieve the ultimate goal of destroying Israel.
That question is not on the quiz show. Not yet.
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Thursday September 4, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
One of the battle ground states for the US presidency will once again be Florida.
There is little doubt about that.
It will be a tough fight.
It will be Joe vs Joe for the elderly Floridian Jewish vote.
When Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Joe Biden went stumping in a Jewish old age home he made it clear to the residents that he and Barack Obama share the same stance about Israel.
When Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain's very good friend Joe Lieberman stumps in Florida, a state he has visited often and will continue to visit again and again, he will make the claim.
At this stage I am not taking bets on who will win Florida.
But I am willing to bet that whichever one of these two senators visits Florida more often will win over the Sunshine State for their candidate.
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Wednesday September 3, 2008
Column:
There are countries that practice diplomacy as a form of fine art and there are countries that practice diplomacy as an "in your face" martial art. And there are countries that practice a mix of the two arts.
Western countries usually, successfully, practice the fine art form. The Palestinians usually end up in the "in your face" martial art category. The first phase of Palestinian diplomacy, the obligatory polite, fine art, phase, almost immediately gives way to the we-will-do-it-our-way-but-make-believe-we-are-still-being-polite phase which then turns into their we will do what we want, when we want, whichever way we want "in your face" final stage of diplomacy.
And when that happens, which is almost always, only another Arab country can get the Palestinians to change policy or principle. No Western power, not the United States, not Israel, not any other Western democracy has any power, or recourse, or redress when the Palestinians have made up their minds and decided diplomacy be damned.
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinians Authority, leader of Fatah and successor to Arafat just demonstrated the type of diplomacy he practices. It was "in your face" of the highest rank. Mahmoud Abbas traveled to Lebanon for a special meeting with one of the most notorious, most vile, most celebrated, freed from prison in a prisoner exchange, terrorist alive today.
Abbas met with Samir Kuntar. Kuntar is the terrorist recently released by Israel along with four other terrorists held in Israeli prisons in exchange for the mutilated, desecrated and obviously tortured remains of Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev who had been kidnapped by Hezbollah and taken into Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
Kuntar was captured by Israel only after he had brutally and publicly murdered a four year old girl, bashing her skull with the butt of his machine gun until blood oozed out of her ears and her head was so crushed it looked to those who found the dead body like a raw egg. And he killed her father. And he killed a policeman. And in the throes of the terrorist attack he perpetrated her younger sister died, too.
Why? Why would the leader of the Palestinian people, the man lobbying for his own country by promising peace with Israel, even go to a meeting with Samir Kuntar let alone ask for the meeting as Kuntar proudly boasted.
The King of Saudi Arabia did not call for a meeting, or even call, Samir Kuntar. Neither did the president of Egypt or the Emir of Dubai or the Emir of Qatar. Abbas paid double respect to the released murderer, he called him upon his release and has now met with him.
Why? Because politically Abbas gains much more from the meeting than he loses. The hits or losses that Abbas takes from this meeting are obvious - Israel is very, very upset, the United States is very upset, Germany is upset. But those countries will move on and as they say in diplomatic circles, they'll get over it. It will take Israel the longest to get over it and it may come back to haunt Abbas, but there will be no immediate reaction. The response at home is immediate.
Abbas calculates that the benefits from the meeting will win him points at home. He does not hope to convince fence sitters because there are no fence sitters in the Palestinian Authority. There are supporters of Hamas and there are supporters of Fatah. And they are killing one another.
The President of the Palestinian Authority met with Samir Kuntar to prove that he is not a Jew lover, that he is not an Israeli lover. Diplomacy be damned. He wants to prove that Mahmoud Abbas and notorious killer of Israelis Samir Kuntar are cut of the same cloth. Abbas went to Lebanon to put on a show for Palestinians and Arabs world over. He went to prove that Abbas embraces murderers of little Israeli Jewish children.
The actions of Mahmoud Abbas, the intentions of Mahmoud Abbas, should inspire fear in every person who fights terror and favors democracy. The heart of Mahmoud Abbas is stone cold. He places politics above humanity. He embraces terror. That has just been proven with one significant visit to Lebanon.
The reality of Palestinian politics is that, at this point, Fatah has a plurality over Hamas and that advantage will for the near future. Sometimes, some people get frustrated with the corruption of Fatah and the extremism of Hamas but few will ever bolt to the other party. In the Palestinian Authority most party lines divide by families and loyalties to family members in various positions of power.
Most recent polls show that Abbas beats Hanyiah of Hamas 53%-39% and Fatah beats Hamas 43%-29% in party polling. The numbers are virtually unchanged since the last serious poll.
You see, Abbas really did not have to prove anything. He's made it. Abbas met with Samir Kuntar because he wanted to meet with Samir Kuntar, because in his heart, he probably respects Samir Kuntar. The intense emotional pull Mahmoud Abbas felt for terrorist Samir Kuntar overrode diplomacy. And it overrode decency.
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Tuesday September 2, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Terrorists beware.
The arrest in England of a fifth person in connection with the plot to assassinate sitting Prime Minister Gordon Brown and former Prime Minister Tony Blair is essential in showing terrorists that they are being watched and tracked.
The plot came to light from a website that fell under the rubric of al Qaeda in England.
The site propounded extreme ideas and violence.
The site demanded that England withdraw its forces from Iraq.
British police insist publicly that there was no active plot.
Perhaps, but the plan was certainly in the organizational stages.
It is unlikely that these men would have been successful.
But that doesn't matter.
What matters is that other terrorists know that the police are vigilant and that the new anti-terror laws are on the side of the state and against the suspects.
It is essential that active and potential terrorists know that plotting attacks and talking about assassinating a prime minister, even in cyberspace, is illegal.
The war against terror is gaining ground - on land and in cyber space.
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Tuesday September 2, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Palin announcement was short and to the point.
The Palin announcement was a political bombshell.
Bristol Palin, 17 years old daughter and 5 months pregnant by her boyfriend Levi, intends to marry Levi and bring the baby to full term.
Barack Obama reacted politically, politely and debonairly.
He said leave the candidate's family alone, my mother was only 18 when I was born.
But the problem is bigger than that.
The problem is that teenage pregnancy is a very serious campaign issue.
This pregnancy is going to be the backdrop of almost every discussion on family values, on parental influence and on education. It cannot not be.
Who vetted Palin?
How could they not see this on the horizon - didn't anyone talk to the kids' friends?
For days now the web has been filled with rumors that the youngest child of the Palin's was really the child of their daughter. Some of the discussions date back to before the announcement of the Republican vice presidential candidate. The material was there to be raised and yet, it was not.
This is a real blunder.
Just remember, Sarah Palin has not yet been officially nominated.
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