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Saturday November 1, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
About a week ago US special ops soldiers entered into Syria by way of Iraq and attacked and killed a major terrorist leader. The US strike was aimed to hit the place where terrorists were trained.
The base was just over the Iraqi border.
Syria condemned the raid and is calling for action against the United States.
North Korea condemned the raid in a public statement.
Iran condemned the raid and Ahmadinejad called it "a blind and savage act."
Syria, North Korea and Iran all have similar reasons to unite against the raid.
All three countries despise the United States.
Interestingly, the Iraqi government also condemned the raid.
Iraq condemned the raid out of fear that Syria would retaliate against them.
And Syria has already retaliated by breaking off diplomatic relations with Iraq and trying to organize other Arabs to follow suit.
That will not happen.
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Saturday November 1, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
AP Yahoo released a poll on Friday saying that 1 in 7 potential voters are still undecided. That translates to 14% of the electorate.
For months now so-called experts have been saying that fewer and fewer voters are still undecided voters.
In reality 14%-18% of voters are and have always been undecided.
The big question is not for whom these undecided people will vote.
The issue is whether these undecided voters will actually vote at all.
There is no doubt that many undecided people make up their mind in the poll booth. But many of the undecided do not even go out to the polling stations. They will stay at home or go to work - they are not apathetic, they just can not bring themselves to make the decision to vote.
It is a character trait. They will let other people decide for them so that they can avoid making decisions.
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Friday October 31, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The AP reported yesterday that Iran was secretly using a new and different method of enriching uranium.
Countries must openly declare how they are enriching uranium.
Not to declare is a violation of international treaties and accords.
The International Atomic Energy Agency must be informed about all methods being used to enrich uranium and the IAEA was given no notice by Iran.
The Iranians were attempting to convert spent reactor to make it usable and then enrich it. Iran discovered that part of the waste in the reactor is uranium. The idea is to harvest what they can from the reactor, enrich it and then, hopefully, use it in a reactor. It is like recycling.
At the same time that this story was breaking another enormously important event was taking place in the region.
The Syrians started dismantling their border posts on the Iraqi border.
The Syrians also cut their diplomatic relations with Iraq.
The Syrians did this in order to make a point about the US special ops raid into their country.
The Middle East is hot and happening right now.
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Friday October 31, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Sources have announced that the Obama campaign has asked Rahm Emanuel to be the chief of staff in the new White House.
That could be a huge mistake for Obama.
Americans do not like their votes taken for granted.
There are still too many states up for grabs.
Emanuel is very capable, he was a key figure in the Clinton White House and then ran on his own and won a Congressional seat in Illinois.
Emanuel offers experience and insight, he would be a great chief of staff.
But 5 days before the election is not the time to announce key appointments.
Many American have been repulsed by the over use of polls in this election. People feel as if they have already voted, they feel that the polls say it all.
This announcement could backfire on Obama.
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Thursday October 30, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
If you want good insight into the thinking of Iranian leadership pay close attention to the Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Khamenei.
The Ayatollah recent gave a speech about the United States.
The speech was delivered to mark the 29th anniversary of the storming of the United States Embassy.
The upshot of the entire presentation was that Iran is justified in their hatred of the United States. Justified not because of the past few years, but because over the past 50 years the US has continuously tried to destabilize Iran.
He blames the CIA for the coup that ousted Mohammed Mosaddeq in the 50's. He blames the US for supporting the Shah.
He blames the US for the conflict in Iraq.
Khamenei blames the US for everything.
The most important lesson we can learn is that because Iranians consider their hatred of the United States as justified, that hatred cannot and will not fade away, not even if the United States changes policy under a new president.
That is the way Iranian leadership thinks.
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Thursday October 30, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Last night AP announced that according to their polls Obama has won.
According to the AP polls Obama has hurdled the electoral college with the 270 votes needed for victory.
According to the AP polls Obama won over 23 states plus the District of Columbia giving him 286 electoral college votes.
The AP data says that even if McCain wins all the states in question he cannot win the election.
Now we have a problem.
It is not clear to me that polling of the states is all that accurate.
In Florida it is accurate because so much money went into Florida to get a good set of samples to insure that this election Florida will not be the disaster it was during the previous election. But that is only Florida, not the other 49.
These state polls cannot statistically represent the state. It is just too difficult and would take too much money to get a fair sample and accurate assessment of states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Internal campaign pollsters are getting accurate numbers.
That is because the campaigns have what the media pollsters do not have - people working the field who can help the statisticians get closer to a representative sampling of the state.
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Wednesday October 29, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
There are many reasons never to talk to the Taliban.
There are many more reasons to talk to them.
The Taliban is not a monolith.
The Taliban is composed of hundreds of small groups, tribes and families.
Many of the tribes are not at all connected to the hierarchy of the Taliban, they belong because it is an affiliation that keeps them safe.
The United States must not speak to the Taliban leadership.
The United States can and must speak to Taliban mid level chiefs and warlords.
The hierarchy of the Taliban is spun like a web, the people the United States speaks with must be carefully vetted and proven to have good connections and good Intel.
Most of the time, lower level Taliban leaders are willing to make agreements even with the enemy in exchange for something they want. Sometimes it is weapons, sometimes information, sometimes access, sometimes respect.
The United States must first know what it happening on the ground.
Then the United States uses that intel to get to the higher echelon Taliban on US terms, not Taliban terms.
Use the group to destroy the group - that is the only way.
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Wednesday October 29, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Palestinian Media Watch called something to my attention that I consider to be relevant to our understanding of how far the influence of the United States really reaches.
A story running in the Palestinian press contained an interview with a man who was organizing volunteers within the Palestinian Authority to randomly call United States citizens living in the United States and influence them to vote for Obama.
This Palestinian was using broadband calling so the phone calls were free and the volunteers were free. He did not buy a list. The volunteers were just dialing the phone. Whoever answered, answered and was then engaged in dialogue by a Palestinian living in the Palestinian Authority.
What I found most interesting was the response of other Palestinians.
According to the Palestinian press reporting on this story most Palestinians are apathetic about the US election because they feel that no matter who is elected, either way, the strong friendship between the United States and Israel will continue.
That is worth hearing about.
The vast majority of the Muslim world understands the special relationship that the United States of America, not the president of the United States, has with Israel.
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Tuesday October 28, 2008
Column:
For the third time in only six years, Israelis will be heading to the polls in search of a prime minister.
I must confess, I did not see this one coming. Seldom have I been as off base as I was in thinking that the leader of the Kadima party, Tzipi Livni, would be unable to form a government. My predictions concerning the Middle East are usually on target and ahead of the curve - this time, however, it came at me like a curve ball.
Livni was in position to inherit a government from her predecessor. Ehud Olmert had left everything in place. All the former foreign minister and current head of the Kadima party had to do was make the same promises to the same people and parties that Olmert had made. The same promises that Ariel Sharon made before Olmert inherited his government.
Of course there are slight changes, variations on a few themes, but the principles are all the same. In the end, Livni was only able to cobble together 60 out of 120 Israeli Knesset members, exactly one half of the Parliamentary body. And that just wasn't enough. She needed one more vote.
Sixty is not a majority government in the Knesset, it is a narrow government. Other governments have been formed with only sixty members, but it has never been a prudent move. In a country in which a "vote of no confidence" is never farther than a breath away, it is a dangerous political move. And it was a move Livni was not prepared to make.
So now the country waits for another national election.
The part of the political equation that I got so wrong was the Shas party part. Shas has 12 seats in today's Knesset. With Shas in her government Tzipi Livni would have had a comfortable majority of 72. But Shas would not join.
My assumption was that Shas would do everything to avoid elections because elections themselves are so risky, because it is never clear whether a party will go up or down, will gain or lose seats and stature and power. Polls taken now in Israel have Shas losing seats in an upcoming election. A basic and sensible rule of Israeli politics is avoid elections if you think you are going to lose seats. But Shas doesn't play by the rules and my mistake was in underestimating just how far afield they would go this time around. Shas is not a regular political party. It is often referred to as an ultra religious party. It is not. It is a party run by religious leaders.
The masses of the Shas party are traditional, rather than religious themselves, but they feel very positively toward religion and toward their religious leaders. The members are the immigrant children and grandchildren of Jews who came to Israel from Arab countries. They are called "Aidot Hamizrach" which translates to mean "Eastern communities" and they are sometimes referred to as Sepharadim. In the 60 year context since Israel's establishment this group has felt they have not had opportunities for growth and true assimilation into the higher echelons of Israeli society. So Shas was created and continues to function as the political arm that fights for the social, political and religious needs of immigrant Jews from Arab lands.
The masses of Shas voters serve in the army. But the decisions in Shas are made by their great rabbinic leader, by Rabbi Ovadiah Yossef. Shas political leadership advises the Rabbi, but make no mistake about it, the decisions themselves are made by the Rabbi.
And Rav Ovadiah ruled that Shas was not to join in the Livni government. The conflict was over three items: Jerusalem; money to schools; money for families with large children. Most of the issues were resolved. But most is not good enough for Rav Ovadiah.
Shas will probably be a member in the next government go round, but after that election, they may have fewer seats which translates into a lot less power. And to their chagrin, that government may again be headed by Livni.
According to two polls out right now, Kadima headed by Tzipi Livni will keep the same number of seats or gain a couple more, which puts them at 29 - 31 Knesset member seats. Likud, the party that thinks it can steal the crown, will increase their seats to 26 - 29 which is not enough to edge out Kadima. According to the polls Labor is on the way out. Labor will not be a contender and Israel has probably come to the end of an era of Labor national leadership.
Mainstream Israelis responded well to Livni and to the fact that the almost-but-not-quite prime minister said "no" to Shas and would not buckle. Shas, on the other hand, is counting on luring back voters because the party stood on principle and did not capitulate on the issues so dear to their constituents.
What do I think? I think I'll think about it a little longer.
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Monday October 27, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
United States helicopters struck Syria yesterday.
National Syrian TV and radio reported that 8 civilians were killed in the village during the US air raid.
The United States has confirmed that they struck an operations network inside Syria.
It seems that the US helicopters actually landed and special ops units engaged and neutralized a command and control structure in Syria that was launching terrorists over the Syrian border into Iraq in order to kill US troops and create unrest among locals by attacking local targets.
Syria has been sitting on its hands for too long so, the US had to take matters into their own hands. That is the way it is done in that part of the world.
Syria condemned the raid, but there is nothing they can do about it.
Syria has been so inactive and so apathetic about that border that they were practically begging the US to respond against the terrorists.
The kicker is that international law permits these strikes for these very reasons.
Terrorists were being launched and the host country did nothing to stop them.
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Monday October 27, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The largest newspaper in Alaska, the Anchorage Daily News, has just endorsed Barack Obama for president.
That was a shocker.
The paper argues that it is just too risky to have Sarah Palin "one 72 year old heartbeat from the presidency."
I have read and re-read the endorsement.
It does not attack Palin.
It actually explains that she was a good governor, but that Obama would be a better choice for president.
Listen up Anchorage Daily news: Sarah Palin is not running for president, she is on the ballot for vice president.
John McCain may 72 years old, but his mother is 96 and acts like she is 72.
The Anchorage Daily News should grow up and act its age.
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Sunday October 26, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
General John Abizaid is the former US Commander of Central Command.
His region of control included Israel and Iran.
Abizaid has made public two assertions based on his experience in the region.
What he said is very dangerous.
"That there are ways to live with a nuclear Iran."
"That Israel cannot make a lasting impression on the Iranian nuclear program."
Why am I using the word dangerous?
Because the general is giving the Iranians more information than they should have.
Because it is not clear to me that the objective of Israel is to make a lasting impression of the Iranian nuclear program.
Because now I am not sure that the general understands the region he was in control of.
The objective of Israel will be to surgically strike at Iran in order to set back Iran's nuclear operation and to call to the world's attention just how dangerous the Iranian nuclear facilities are.
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Sunday October 26, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The national Zogby Poll of potential voters came out today.
Zogby, which has a degree of error of 2.9, places Obama ahead of McCain by only 5 points at 49 - 44.
On Thursday the same poll was had a 12 point spread.
What is happening?
Zogby does the polling but the poll is sponsored by Reuters and C-SPAN.
Quite a lot of money goes into creating a representative sample and making certain that it is exactly that - representative.
One possibility is that the disparity in poll numbers from Thursday to Sunday tells us that people have started to change their minds and move away from Obama toward McCain. 7 points is huge for 3 days. It could be an anomaly or it could be a huge pendulum swing which then often swings back to find itself somewhere in the middle. That would give Obama an 8.5 point lead.
The other possibility is that the new results are a trend that is brought on by the quick approach of the finish line.
There is still time. We will see what happens in the next few days.
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Saturday October 25, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Rumors are flying claiming that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is ill.
True, Ahmadinejad has canceled several activities over the past few days.
It could be a cold or it could be a more serious health issue.
In January other rumors were swirling around linking the Iranian leader to ill health and cancer.
Whatever is happening, it is important for us in the United States and in the Western world.
Ahmadinejad has been tapped by the Ayatollah to run in and to win the next Iranian election which is scheduled for June of 2009.
But if Ahmadinejad is weak or sick the Ayatollah will rescind his blessing.
There is no doubt that the real power in Iran rests with the Ayatollah but Ahmadinejad has been very successful at delivering the message of the Islamic Republic both internally and externally.
We have to keep our stethoscopes to the ground to wait and to see what emerges.
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Saturday October 25, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The campaign has turned to economic issues.
But one crucial issue has not made it to the campaign platforms.
The price of oil is going down, down, down and no one is talking about it.
Oil hit $63 yesterday.
Oil fell $40 in a month.
Oil is nearly $90 off its summertime peak.
OPEC, the 13 country cartel, is responding.
OPEC has decided to cut their production quota by 1.5 - 2 million barrels per day.
OPEC is asking each nation to pull back production in order to limit supply and keep prices up.
But the OPEC countries are already producing more than their 29 million barrel a day quota.
They do not want to cut back because they want the money.
They do not want to wait until the market readjusts.
So OPEC is breaking its own cartel.
If I were advising either of our political candidates I would be hammering away at oil prices.
I would help the voting public understand that despite the downturn, the cost of heating our homes this winter will be cheaper and the cost of travel will be cheaper.
I would make it clear that OPEC will not be able to profit from our hardship and losses.
I would be passing along good, positive economic news.
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Friday October 24, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Twenty five years ago in Beirut nearly 300 US Marines were murdered when a suicide truck bomb was driven into their barracks.
It was a wake up call to the United States that was not heard until the alarm went off again on 9-11.
The Marines went in to Beirut as peacekeepers, never even realizing that in Lebanon their presence would unite the terrorists. Hezbollah was the group that planned and executed the murderous attack on the US servicemen.
Twenty five years later it is critical that we remember what happened in Beirut.
We must remember and we must also learn from the experience.
We must remember who and what Hezbollah.
We must do our best to make certain that Hezbollah does not and cannot murder us ever again.
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Friday October 24, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Jews have always voted Democratic. This election will be no different.
Two new polls have come out predicting the Jewish vote on November 4th.
The NYU poll says that over 60% of Jews will vote Obama while about 30% will vote for McCain.
The Gallup Group poll which was published yesterday published was more in line with previous years, it had 74% of the Jews voting for Obama and 22% for McCain.
In 2000, during the Gore/Bush battle for the White House, Gore received 80% of the Jewish vote. In 1994 Kerry got 74% of that vote.
The Jewish community is stable, it is predictable.
This year people are talking about how the Jewish vote will go Republican.
In real terms if 30% of the Jewish vote actually does go Republican, that would be a seismic shift in Jewish voting patterns.
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Thursday October 23,2008
I've Been Thinking:
An al Qaeda website claimed that they would welcome a terror attack on the United States that would help usher in John McCain as president.
Huh?
This little factoid is an essential educational tool for Americans in understanding al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda does not care who the next president of the United States will be.
Al Qaeda does care about attacking the United States.
Any excuse to attack the United States is welcomed by al Qaeda.
The McCain issue is irrelevant to Al Qaeda.
Where al Qaeda misses the boat is that the vast amount of their own adherents do care who the next president is.
Al Qaeda supporters from Asia to Europe to the Middle East and even those living in the United States look forward to an attack on America, but none of them want a terrorist attack in the US before the election.
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Thursday October 23, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
AP just released a poll that puts the presidential race at 44% to 43%, that's very close.
At the same time the ABC / Washington Post poll has an 11 point spread.
What's the story? What is one to think?
Regardless of what camp you are in, this race is far from over.
If Obama starts acting as if he has won or if McCain as if he has lost, it will tilt the election.
States like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Florida are all up for grabs.
But so are Colorado and Virginia.
It is not clear how any of these states will vote on election day.
The AP poll gives us a lot of important information.
The people AP polled were workers who earn less than $50, 000.
Given the current economic crisis that salary group might actually be a greater indicator than expected.
The AP poll might be showing us a serious shift in the voting pattern.
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Wednesday October 22, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Those of you who read me regularly will not be surprised to know that the polls are swinging yet again.
The polls are much like a rubber band.
And the rubber band effect is happening right now.
Like rubber bands, polling results expand and contract.
The objective of the winner is to get the rubber band to expand in your direction on the eve of election day.
Looking at both national polling data and individual state data we see that the numbers are shifting.
For John McCain, that is good news.
The good news for Barack Obama is that this shift might be occurring too early. Line any rubber band, it will soon contract.
Everyone is watching this trend as McCain's numbers increase.
If the Republican nominee's numbers climb slowly and progressively from day to day as he leaches votes from Obama, the expansion will probably last longer.
If the Republican nominee's numbers expand fast and furious, the rubber band will probably rebound sooner than November 4th.
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Tuesday October 21, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Did anyone catch the piece on Iran's massive ostrich sandwich?
Iran tried to break the Guinness World Book record by concocting a 4900 foot long ostrich submarine sandwich.
That is a very impressive feat.
But before the representatives of the Guinness Book of World Records could step forward to measure the sandwich, the people lunged ahead and went grabbing for the prize winning sub.
So although Iran probably did break the record - officially they did not.
Now I am waiting for the Iranians to blame Israeli or the United States for their failure.
There is a metaphor here.
This ostrich sub debacle is a perfect example of Iran's inability to seize the proper moment.
Iran successfully turned a potentially great PR event into an example of gross ineptitude.
All it took was a matter of seconds, all that was needed was a few minutes more.
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Monday October 20, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Egypt issued invitations to Hamas and Fatah leaders to join together for a pow wow on November 9th.
The objective of the gathering is to try and mend fences and to agree to power share in the leadership of the Palestinian Authority.
It's a classic story;
Fatah Palestinian leadership agrees to join with Hamas and share power and is then powerless to oust Hamas extremists or to topple Hamas.
From the Hamas point of view it is a perfect arrangement:
This is exactly how Hamas was able to oust and topple Fatah in Gaza. Hamas was able to observe the Fatah power base in Gaza and then crushed it in a matter of days.
Fatah just isn't thinking strategically:
If Fatah does succeed in power sharing with Hamas they will be shunned by the US. It will mean a wall to wall rejection of Abbas in America. Considering how much Abbas is getting from the US and the pressure the US is putting on Israel for an agreement with the Palestinians plus the fact that Abbas was in the White House two weeks ago, this deal would be a big mistake.
But then again, Abbas is prone to making big mistakes.
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Monday October 20, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Full disclosure: I did not see Colin Powel on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday (I was delivering a lecture in Connecticut), but I did read the transcript.
I have a great deal of respect for Colin Powel.
I think he acted with tremendous honor and responsibility when he stepped down as Secretary of State.
I know that many Americans share my sentiment and respect for Powell.
I also know that very few Americans care about his endorsement and even fewer will be swayed by it.
Americans love the mass part of the mass media.
They do not really watch the Sunday talk shows, but they do watch Saturday Night Live.
Actually, 17 million people watched SNL because they knew Sarah Palin, the real one, would be making an appearance.
Actually, this SNL had one of the best ratings ever and that was due to Sarah Palin.
Say what you will, there is a significant Sarah Factor out there.
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Sunday October 19, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
On Friday, Japan trounced Iran in a United Nations General Assembly vote to fill the rotating Asian seat on the Security Council.
The vote was a shocking 158 to 32.
It was a clear message from the masses at the UN.
The world does not want Iran sitting on the only real UN body with teeth, the world does not want Iran on what is clearly the most powerful board in the UN.
Japan is a much more stayed and calming presence for the Security Council.
The Iranian response is to claim that the United Nations is intolerant.
The Iranian Ambassador to the UN said that the member states were incapable of hearing unpopular and counter ideas and opinions.
The vote shows us something.
It shows us that the ideas Iran is voicing scare not only the United States, but 157 other countries as well.
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Sunday October 19, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Israel is preparing for any and all contingencies regarding the US presidential election.
What most concerns Israel hinges on an Obama victory.
Should Barack Obama become the next president of the United States, Israel expects that he will launch direct talks with Iran almost immediately.
The idea that Iran and the United States will be engaging in face to face high level meetings is shocking to most Israelis, but never the less, Israel has teams preparing a series of responses.
The end result of Israel's contingency plans provide for trilateral Iranian / US / Israeli talks.
Big questions arise:
What will happen to the Iranian enrichment programs?
How long will it take for Obama to be taught a lesson in the Middle East before he returns to the old model?
How much damage will be done in the course of this little experiment?
Will Israel's strategic security be compromised by the US/Iran dialogue?
At this point it is all hypothesis and contingency.
We'll know more after November 4th.
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Saturday October 18, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Al Jarida, a Kuwaiti newspaper, has scooped a story that I cannot confirm - but if it is true, it is a move that will alter the face of the Middle East and the world.
In the Friday edition of the paper it was reported that George Bush asked Abbas to deliver a private letter to Assad of Syria.
None of the teams knew about this, it was to be a completely private arrangement.
According to the report, the letter stated that Syria would get everything Syria wants in a Golan Heights deal in exchange for publicly denouncing Iran.
It said that Syria must back away entirely from any relationship with Iran.
It said that all this can happen very fast.
It said that it can happen before the November 4th US presidential elections.
Everyone has denied the report.
But it sounds within the realm of possible.
Israel and Syria are getting close to a deal.
A push from the United States can bring an Israel/Syria deal to a close more easily than an Israel/Palestinian deal.
The problem is not Israel, Syria or the Golan Heights.
The problem is Iran.
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Saturday October 18, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Watching John McCain and Barack Obama roast each other at a Catholic charity dinner in honor of Alfred E. Smith was truly entertaining.
Neither presidential candidate is really comfortable reading humor but they each delivered a few good zingers and it was a delight to watch them in fun mode.
The McCain writing was tighter and funnier.
The Obama presentation was more a stump speech punctuated by jokes and humor.
And they both looked great in white tie.
The most important aspect of the evening was that both men appeared human.
They were actually more human when laughing at the other's lines than when they were delivering their own punches.
They were able to laugh at themselves.
I have always said that the ability to find humor in a situation and to laugh at yourself is a very important quality in a president.
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Friday October 17, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
A Saudi newspaper named Ukaz reported on Thursday that Israel has totally accepted Hamas' demands in the hope that Gilad Shalit will be returned to Israel.
Shalit is the Israeli soldier who has been held by terrorists in Gaza for over two years, ever since his capture in a cross border attack into Israel during the summer of 2006.
The deal, as described in the paper, has two stages.
In the first stage Israel releases 450 Hamas prisoners.
In the second stage Israel releases another 550 prisoners.
The Israelis have completely denied this report.
But earlier this week there was talk that Israel would have to revamp their traditional prisoner release model and look seriously at releasing Hamas prisoners with blood on their hands.
Very little has been accomplished to save Shalit using third party discussions.
If the objective is to free Shalit a change of paradigm is needed.
But is it worth the price?
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Friday October 17, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Obama took his campaign to West Virginia yesterday.
Why West Virginia? There are several reasons.
The last time West Virginia took its 5 electoral college votes and went blue i.e. Democratic, was in 1996. That was when Clinton beat Dole.
West Virginian is thought to be the perfect Republican state. But so far, the state is still undecided. So Obama is showing a little swagger. He is there to push and pull the traditionally red state back to the Clinton era.
It is not about the 5 votes, it is about what West Virginian symbolizes.
If Obama can sway West Virginia the entire momentum of the election shifts into the Obama court. That means an election like the 1984 Reagan vs Mondale race in which Mondale only took 13 electoral votes - 10 from his home state of Minnesota plus 3 from DC. The result was a 525 - 13 electoral vote win for Reagan.
West Virginia is not a battleground state.
West Virginian is a flood state.
If West Virginian goes blue, the flood gates open.
If West Virginia remains red, the fight drags on.
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Thursday October 16, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Jesse Jackson put his foot in his mouth once again.
His comments were very revealing - not about himself but about Barack Obama.
While at a conference in France Jackson spoke to columnist Amri Tahiri and explained that as part of the change in priorities that Barack Obama would bring to Washington, D.C. the security of Israel would no longer remain a high priority.
According to Jackson, Obama would put everyone on an even field. Jackson asserted that Obama understands the situation well.
He said Obama will correct the "decades of putting Israel's interests first."
He said: "Barack is determined to repair our relations with the world of Islam and Muslims."
He said: "Thanks to his background and ecumenical approach, he knows how Muslims feel while remaining committed to his own faith."
The Obama campaign rejected the Jackson comments.
The interesting point is that these comments will in no way effect the voters. Those in favor of Obama will still support him and those who oppose him will be baffled that even this revelation, by a personal friend, brought about no change.
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Thursday October 16, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The final Presidential Debate finished up last night.
Once again, what a disappointment.
Presidential debates do not have to be inspiring, but they should at least be entertaining, they should at least provide the public with some insights.
Voters are less interested in sparring than they are in personal details.
Of all the debates this one had the most tension, but even that led nowhere.
As I review the debates I have come to a conclusion.
It is the moderators, not the candidates, who are at fault for the lackluster quality of the presidential debates.
The moderators were incapable of getting to the heart of the candidates.
The moderators were content with almost every answer they received.
The moderators hardly ever followed up seriously on any issue and did not force the candidates to think seriously or show us who they really are.
High school debates pack more wallop than these presidential debates.
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Wednesday October 15, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Former UN secretary General Kofi Annan is in Teheran this week.
Annan is in Iran to attend a conference on religious tolerance called the "Conference on Religion in the Modern World."
Participants also include former leaders from Italy, France and Portugal.
All the guests at the conference are there on the invitation of Mohammad Khatami, the former president of Iran and a current challenger to Ahmadinejad.
When Saudi Arabia held a pluralistic conference Iran shouted that the idea was antithetical to Islam. Now that Iran is sponsoring a conference and Khatami is running it, everything is, to borrow a phrase, kosher. Khatami is the head of the Center for Dialogue among Religions and Civilizations. It is that Center that sponsored the event.
This conference has been covered in the Iranian press.
That coverage signals to us that Khatami is making his move and getting ready to enter the presidential elections.
Khatami will present a serious challenge Ahmadinejad in June.
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Tuesday October 14, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
On Monday the Kuwaiti government announced a new program for dealing with extremists.
The new program is called: Rehabilitation.
Kuwait said that they will be "treating" the extremists.
The problem with the announcement is that Kuwait did not clarify who and what constitutes an extremist or what rehab methods would be used.
This announcement by Kuwait sounds a lot like current Chinese and North Korean responses to social deviants and to the old Soviet style of reeducation.
My guess is that the Kuwaitis will engage in religious reprogramming and indoctrination. No mere idea reeks of Clockwork Orange.
There is a long history of imprisonment and torture of extremists in the Arab world. As unsavory as it sounds, the methods have been proven successful in the past.
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Monday October 13, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Voices in the Muslim world have become loud and aggressive when talking about the economic turmoil now taking hold in the United States.
Al Qaeda has made it clear that this is a punishment and that the US will inevitably fall.
Ismail Haniyah, the leader of Hamas, gave a sermon in Gaza during Friday prayers and said: "We are witnessing the collapse of the American Empire" ... "What's going on in America is a result of the violation of the rights of people in Palestine, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Muslims around the world."
Iran's Ahmadinejad said: "Now the world capacity is full and these problems have returned to the U.S." He added: "and finally they are oppressors, and systems based on oppression and unrighteous positions will not endure."
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a Iranian cleric who is a significant religious force in Iran said : "We are happy that the U.S. economy is in anarchy and the anarchy is reaching Europe." ... "They are seeing the result of their own ugly doings and God is punishing them."
And we thought it was just greed and mismanagement.
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Monday October 13, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Election momentum seemed to have shifted in Obama’s direction.
You hear the ease in his voice when he speaks.
You sense the charge and power flowing through the crowds as he speaks.
But the election is far from over.
There are 2 factors to look at in the last 3 weeks of a presidential election:
# 1: The undecided voter - and there are 18% of them still to vote
# 2: The rubber band effect - numbers that bounce back and forth, expand and contract, in a cyclical way.
Certainly, there is still time for blunders and mistakes, but unless those are humongous, they are only a very small part of what really matters.
Right now, the rubber band is favoring Barack Obama.
It will bounce back again.
The question is, will it contract enough and at the right time for John McCain.
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Sunday October 12, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
On Saturday night Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas arrived in Syria.
Abbas is scheduled to meet with Syrian leaders, among them Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The purpose of the visit and the meeting is to brief Syria on inner Palestinians talks, on the Fatah / Hamas talks.
For over a year there has been a bitter, sometimes murderous, feud between Fatah and Hamas. Up until now Egypt has attempted to mediate and has failed miserably.
Now Syria is interested in the resolving the inner Palestinian conflict.
Syria is a strong and significant supporter of Hamas.
Assad recently met with Hamas leaders in discussions very similar to the discussion he will be having with Hamas.
Syria has a game strategy.
Syria wants to exercise power, nudge Egypt out of position and secure a big role as Arab player and peacemaker.
The Palestinians are pawns on the Syrian playing field.
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Sunday October 12, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The weekend brought what should be some good economic news.
The price per barrel of oil dropped to about $78.
That news should make people feel better.
That news should be heralded by the present president and the presidential wannabes to shore up the economy
Of course, one of the reasons the price went down is because the speculation market is expecting lower demand given the economic crisis, but right now everyone should just go with the flow.
The lower cost of oil is exactly the spin that could jumpstart markets and get them back up and running.
The lower cost of oil can serve to provide both consumers and investors with the strength, the oomph, to jump back.
I would have liked to hear the candidates discuss this change in oil prices, but I didn't hear it because neither of them mentioned it.
When you have an item that can make people feel better, use it.
Anyone who knows anything about the economy knows that attitude is everything.
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Saturday October 11, 2008
I'm Predicting:
I just saw a Saudi report declaring that Iran's economy was on the verge of collapse.
If it's true, it's important.
There is little doubt that Iran's economy is in bad shape.
Iran is suffering from very high inflation.
Iran does not make market decisions, Iran makes religious decisions.
Saudi Arabia is watching Iran very closely. Nothing would please Saudi Arabia more than to see the demise of the Iranian religious theocratic state. But Saudi Arabia can do nothing to hasten Iran's demise. The Saudis cannot stimulate a war with Iran.
All eyes are on Iran economically.
The only people not paying attention to the Iranian economy are the Iranians.
Iran imports their gas because they cannot refine their oil.
Iran subsidizes their gas to keep it plentiful and easily accessible.
These two examples alone are enough to show just how bizarre Iranian economic planning is.
Look for the Iranian economy to soon move from very high inflation to a position of hyper-inflation.
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Saturday October 11, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
I keep hammering away on the subject of national polls.
I keep saying that the national opinion of Americans really doesn’t matter.
I keep saying that national polling data is not even a close indicator of what might happen on Election Day.
I keep saying that what matters is electoral college polls.
I keep saying that what matters is how each stare, not the individual residents of that state, is fairing.
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.
The best electoral college polling data as of Friday afternoon is:
Obama with 277, of those 211 are solid and 66 are leaning
McCain with 158, of those 143 are solid and 15 are leaning
103 electoral college votes are still up in the air
Three things could be happening:
# 1: The polls are totally wrong
# 2: There is no clear way of polling electoral votes and all the money is really going towards national polls
# 3: Obama has it in the bag and the only way to make this race even close is for McCain to sway all the leaning states and all the up-in-the air states and still swipe a handful of votes leaning towards Obama
I would go with the # 1 or # 2.
It would be nearly impossible for McCain to overcome that kind of difference.
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Friday October 10, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Middle East is about honor and pride.
Beating someone at their own game is tantamount to dishonoring them.
Unbeknownst to most of the world until this year Iran was the largest producer of pistachios in the world.
This year the United States will be the largest pistachio producer in the world.
Iran is losing to California in the pistachio war.
Pistachios are the second largest export of Iran after oil.
Last year Iran produced 280 tons of pistachios and reaped a billion in revenues.
This year Iran is down 75% due to a very cold spring which is harvest time.
This year the United States will produce 190 tons of pistachio nuts and Iran will not come anywhere close to that.
I know that it sounds weird but it is a global market.
If people in the Muslim world want pistachio nuts - which they do - they will have to buy them from the good ol’ USA.
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Friday October 10, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Voter registration is becoming an issue in the presidential election.
Too many irregularities by too many people are being reported.
Acorn, a grass roots registration group that targets blacks for registration in large cities and encourages them to vote for Barack Obama, has come under serious scrutiny. It began about a week ago because too many people have come out saying that Acorn is forcing them to register more than once.
And The New York Times is reporting that people who registered within the past two weeks are being removed from the voter logs in Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan and Nevada. Most of these are battleground states.
And election committees are saying that they are trying to remove the names of people who should not be on the list because they are dead. They say they are doing this to fulfill the Help America Vote Act from 2002.
Something is wrong.
A fix is needed before the election.
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Thursday October 9, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The Russia - Georgia situation seems to be taking a new turn.
Foreign journalists, and some Russian journalists, are reporting that Russian troops are advancing into Abkhazia.
The journalists report that they witnessed and followed 50-60 armed vehicles as they advanced from a Russian base into Abkhazia.
That could mean several things.
It could mean that Russia is planning to fortify its control and solidify its friendship with Abkhazia.
It could also mean that this is another typically Russian plot to lure Georgia into a conflict over control of Abkhazia.
Two distinct possibilities, neither one is good news.
Only time will tell what it really happening.
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Thursday October 9, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
The dust is still settling on the presidential debate.
It seems clear that this go around there was no clear cut winner.
Obama or McCain, call it either way, whichever candidate won did not win my much.
But that's not the point.
Everyone agrees that John McCain needed much more than a small win, he needed a knock out and no such punch was hit or received.
But searching out and waiting for a punch in a debate is anti-climactic.
What we should be looking for is the new issues that a candidate raises, issues that will dominate and punctuate his talking points and stump speeches for the next few days.
McCain's mortgages aside, this debate was one long run on sentence - a series of lines anyone who has heard a stump speech has heard before.
No one changes their minds after watching a debate, but no one should feel bad for having taken the time to sit through a debate.
That's where both candidates failed.
America does not feel better for having heard this presidential debate.
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Wednesday October 8, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
I just watched a video of Samir Kuntar firing a shoulder mounted disposable rocket propelled grenade.
It looked like Kuntar was getting a demonstration and firing the grenade for the first time.
Samir Kuntar is the heinous terrorist recently released from Israeli prison in exchange for the mutilated, murdered bodies of the two captured Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.
It was just a matter of time before Kuntar fell back on his ways and involved himself in new terrorist activities. Kuntar never expressed remorse for his actions, not even for his bludgeoning of a child to death with the butt of his rifle after having her witness the murder of her father.
Samir Kuntar has become a hero.
Samir Kuntar is now the inspiration for young terrorist wannabees,
Samir Kuntar is setting an example for young terrorists, encouraging them to join the movement.
The arms training video I watched was probably part of a terrorist recruitment program.
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Wednesday October 8, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Like many of you I turned on my TV to watch the presidential debate.
What a disappointment.
I won't be surprised when the ratings come out to learn that many Americans left the debate after the first thirty minutes for Law & Order and CSI reruns.
The first presidential debate had 15 million viewers.
The vice presidential debate had nearly 70 million viewers.
The vice presidential debate was entertaining but that was only part of the reason behind its rating success.
The Palin Effect.
Americans tuned in, en masse, to the vice presidential debate because whether you lover her or hate her, people are curious about Sarah Palin.
The draw was a new fresh look at a completely different type of candidate.
The McCain/Obama Show has been going on for so long it takes a lot of extra effort to generate anything new or different.
Last night I looked for, but could not find, that extra effort.
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Tuesday October 7, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
France has just offered Venezuela a very sweet deal.
France offered to provide Venezuela with nuclear technology, to build power plants and even to provide other, more advanced, nuclear technology.
Venezuela said "no."
Why did Venezuela say "no?"
Because one, pretty obvious, hitch came with the deal.
France wants Venezuela to be an intermediary with Iran on the nuclear issue.
Actually, France came up with a very good idea.
Chavez and Ahmadinejad have a very close relationship. And France has a better relationship with Venezuela than does any other Western European country or the United States.
It could work. Venezuela could actually speak to Iran in a way and on a level that could be very convincing.
But it would also be problematic. Chavez does not want to do the Western world's bidding and be an arm of his sworn adversary, the United States.
Besides, Chavez does not think that he needs the French because he thinks he will get all future technology from Iran after they finish developing the technology.
As much as it pains me to say this, the French are starting to act and sound like world leaders.
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Tuesday October 7, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Both the Democrats and the Republicans have spent a lot of time these past few days pointing accusatory fingers and saying that the other side has gotten personal.
Of course they got personal, that's the American way.
In American politics the election is about character, it's about issues that relate to a party leader not just for what he thinks but also for what he does.
In America voters are more interested in a nominee's character than they are in his stand on issues. It's not for the sake of gossip, it's for insight into the character of the candidate.
In American elections today a candidate's friends and activities are as important as his tax returns. And they may be even more important than his health care plan. Most Americans cannot or will not understand the tax plan, the health plan or the plan a candidates puts forth for social security, but they will understand the associates and affiliations of the candidate.
In America today the election is not about drugs and whether or not someone inhaled, it is about whether the voter can trust a candidate and whether the voter believes in the candidate.
In America the voter makes that determination based on a series of variables and one of the top ranking variables in the minds of most voters is very, very personal.
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October 6, 2008
Column:
When Ephraim Halevy has something to say, most people listen. And Halevy, former chief of the Israeli Mossad, does not believe that Israelis should be involved in American politics. The Obama camp, apparently, thinks otherwise.
In a new Obama ad, an ad that will begin running on You Tube, on television and on radio this week, prominent Israeli heroes are seen and heard endorsing Obama Barack for president. According to the ad, the suggestion is that Obama is best for Israel and for the region and a vote for McCain is a vote for the continuation of George Bush's "failed" Middle East doctrine. Only problem with the ad, say some of the Israelis, is that when they were interviewed, they were never told that it was for a campaign ad and certainly not for an Obama ad campaign.
The stretch-the-truth ritual has been celebrated by candidates ever since the advent of political advertisements. This year, however, the candidates aren't just stretching or bending the truth, they are twisting and turning the truth, sometimes even going so far as to make up or fabricate what they then call truths.
The former head of the Mossad actually likes Obama. "I think that Obama is a breath of fresh air," he said during the interview. But he is not about to let the Barack Obama campaign twist either his words or his implication. Halevy is livid, to quote him directly: I told them I thought it was inappropriate for an Israeli to express an opinion on who should be president of the U.S. ... it angers me. I think it was an improper use of the interview with me and I will demand that they correct it ..."
The back story about this ad is becoming big news in Israel. In a piece that ran in the largest Hebrew daily newspaper, Yediot Ahronot and on YNET, the papers popular web site, Halevy denied ever having expressly supported Obama. He said: "I said he's a fresh, interesting personality and so forth, but I also said positive things about McCain."
The group responsible for - and under fire for - putting this ad together is called The Jewish Council for Education and Research. This same group is responsible for two other Jewish voting initiatives for Obama, they are the sponsors of jewsvote.com and The Great Schlep. Jews Vote is a program that tries to register as many democratic voters as possible. The Great Schlep has gained fame and notoriety for developing the Sarah Silverman ad, a campaign directed at younger, Jewish voters urging them to schlep to Florida in order to convince their bubbes, and I presume their zaydees as well, their grandparents, to vote Barack Obama for president. Silverman is so impassioned in her plea that she says: "if Obama loses this election I'm going to blame the Jews."
General Uzi Dayan, a nephew of Moshe Dayan arguably one of Israel's most famous war heroes turned politician, is another of the heroes featured in the ad campaign. In the ad Dayan says: "I would say that an American president, in my personal opinion, needs actually to be engaged with Iran ... you can't not talk to the Iranians and then one day attack them ... I'm not saying give in to them, because ultimately, you need to stop Iran from reaching nuclear capability."
After discovering that he was featured in the ad Dayan said: "I never said I support Obama or his opinions ... they interviewed me in early July and said the interview would be devoted to questions of Middle East policy that would be on the new president's desk ... I don't know what I'm doing in a campaign video." Like Halevy, Dayan has asked for a correction and asked the Obama people at The Council for Jewish Education and Research to remove him from the ad.
Other voices, like those of Reserve Brigadier General Shaul Arieli and ex-Mossad agent Yossi Alpher, are heard on this ad criticizing the Bush administration for Middle East failures and asserting that McCain seems close to the Bush doctrine so with McCain there will be more of the same.
The issue here is not as simple as a manipulation of quotes and out of context interviews. The issue is intention and the intention of this ad, and other ads like it on both sides of the aisle, is to change reality. The intention of this ad specifically is to exploit American viewers by having first exploited Israeli war heroes. That is wrong. That is immoral.
Are there no ex-generals or intelligence people who actually do subscribe to the Obama thesis? Are there no military types who would willingly and knowingly praise Barack Obama? If there were, why would the Obama campaign have resorted to trickery and chicanery and why go all the way to Israel? It makes me wonder.
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Sunday October 5, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is starting to flex some muscle.
Iran has expressed disappointment that the price of oil has dropped below $95 per barrel.
Iran has announced that the dropping of the price of oil is neither beneficial nor helpful to the Muslim countries.
At the same time Iran is clearly demonstrating how it does not understand world economies and why their own economy is in such dreadful condition. They fail to understand that price of oil is not only determined by the producer of the product.
Prices are also determined by demand.
The demand for oil has dropped since the price when high.
Now there is a glut of oil on the market.
If Iran wants to keep the price high they have to decrease world production.
But if they succeed in decreasing production and keeping the price elevated they might make less money than dropping the price.
People will buy more oil when the price of oil comes down.
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Sunday October 5, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
This election has taken on a new dimension.
Welcome to the world of dueling comedians.
First came Sarah Silverman's plea to young Jews to schlep to Florida to convince their grandparents to vote Obama. Her video is all over the place.
Now comes Jackie Mason with his own You Tube shtik calling Silverman a Yenta and explaining that people should vote the way they want and that does not make them a bigot.
Both comedians are very entertaining and certainly more poignant than late night one liners.
The weird reality is that one significant reason this election is different from previous presidential elections is precisely because the battle over votes is being waged on so many new media fronts.
Another reality is that the elderly living in Florida are more likely to be influenced by their grandchildren than by the media and their grandchildren are influenced by comedians on You Tube.
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Saturday October 4, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Syria has chutzpah.
Syria is being investigated by the IAEA and yet, until yesterday, that fact did not stop the Syrians from trying to become a member of the 35 member IAEA board.
On the same day that Syria withdrew their nomination for the board, Syria told the IAEA inspectors that they could not inspect the bases in question. Syria said that they would fully cooperate with the IAEA but with a caveat - not at the expense of their national security.
Syria wants to emulate Iran's modus operendi. They announce total cooperation but then attach a slew of conditions and limitations.
And Syria gets away with it.
Last month the IAEA inspection committee reported that the evidence they had gathered in Syria concerning nuclear development was inconclusive.
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Saturday October 4, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Everyone is talking about the debate.
The vice presidential debate was in many ways more interesting than last week's presidential match up and will probably be more interesting than next week's presidential debate.
The vice presidential debate ended in a tie.
US presidential elections today are all about looks and image.
Both nominees looked good.
Both nominees sounded good.
In the reality that is today's presidential campaign truth and accuracy are irrelevant, passion and appearance are what counts.
Sarah Palin smiled and joked and Joe Biden chatted and laughed and that was important. Actually, the personality traits that were allowed to emerge during this debate were more important than any single argument either person presented.
When Joe Biden said he knows what it feels like to be a single parent and when Sarah Palin said she knows what is means to be middle class they were trying to relate to middle America.
The way I see it, both the senator and the governor successfully accomplished what they set out to do.
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Friday October 3, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Asharq al Awsat is reporting that Syria is reestablishing nuclear foundations with the assistance of North Korea.
The report appeared in the Thursday edition of this London published Arabic language newspaper. Asharq al Awsat is usually a reliable resource. It is one of the few critical papers written in Arabic. The paper's only concern about not towing party lines is the safety of correspondents who may be in parts of the Arab and Muslim world that take exception to their coverage.
The report also quotes Israeli sources saying that they will not permit Syria to grow atomically in "the model of Iran." That means that Israel is prepared to nip Syria's nuclear development like they did last September 6th.
Iran was permitted free growth on its atomic program and now it is out of control. Dealing with Iran now requires intervention by the entire world and even then positive results are unlikely.
Syria, on the other hand, will be handled with a single surgical strike.
The tension between Syria and Israel has risen dramatically.
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Friday October 3, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Vice presidential debates are often more interesting than the presidential debates.
Think back four years, Cheney/Lieberman was a much better show than Bush/Gore.
When Sarah Palin took the stage in Minnesota she made a big splash.
As is the case with all splashes, the further from the point of entry the smaller the ripple and in the winks since the Convention, the excitement has dissipated.
Palin needs another big splash, the debate was the perfect vehicle.
All she had to do was hold your own against Biden, stick to time, smile.
She did more than that.
She showcased her personality and charm and did it with a sense of humor.
Those who hate Sarah Palin will continue to hate Sarah Palin.
Those who like Sarah Palin will continue to like Sarah Palin.
Those who have not yet made up their minds might be swayed by the real person, not just the politician, they saw in the vice presidential debate.
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Thursday October 2, 2008
I've Been Thinking:
Iran is putting its cards on the table.
During his weekly briefing the foreign minister of Iran clearly said that Iran has no plans to conform to the UN Security Council call to cease developing nuclear technology.
The briefing, which is an official statement of policy, made it clear that Iran views nuclear development as a right and that the United Nations is overstepping its bounds.
The statement went on to say that Iran should be no different than any other country wishing to develop alternative energy resources.
In principle, Iran is correct.
But principle is not practice.
Iran has not been transparent in their development of nuclear technology.
And no other country has threatened to wipe another country off the map.
Iran is not like other countries.
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http://www.thomasnelson.com/consumer/product_detail.asp?sku=1595550739