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Thursday 28, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
For the third week in a row the leaders of Hamas in Gaza have cancelled Friday’s March of Return.
The March is a massive weekly riot on the border between Israel and Gaza. Every Friday, for well over a year, Palestinians organized a violent set of attacks against Israeli soldiers. They rushed the border, threw firebombs, shot guns and slingshots at Israelis and launched balloons and drones with bombs.
Until now.
Now, for the third week, Hamas has called it off. The reason for the cancelations is clear. Hamas is holding up their end of a ceasefire, part of which included reducing tensions with Israel.
Let’s see if it lasts.
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Wednesday 27, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
A group of Arab Journalist toured Israel last week as guests of the Foreign Ministry. The journalists came from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Egypt. They spent five days in Israel.
This was the second trip of its type in six months. Unlike the last trip, none of the journalists in this group wanted to go public and make people aware that they were visiting Israel.
If you remember, in the last group a famous Saudi blogger went public and was subsequently assaulted on the Temple Mount went he went to pray at the Mosque of al Aqsa.
Ironically, this visit coincided with the London Conference, a meeting of forward thinking Arab leaders that endorsed a call for Arabs to stop boycotting Israel.
Two steps forward, one step backward - change is slow but it seems to be on the way.
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Tuesday 26, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted on Monday that the Arab world should stop boycotting Israel. He said that if they would just talk to Israel, the Arab world would gain so much.
Pompeo tweeted: “It’s time for Arab countries to abandon boycotts and engage #Israel,”
Pompeo tweeted. “#MiddleEast divisions = instability.”
Pompeo tweeted: “Arab thinkers who risk their lives to bravely advocate a regional vision of peace and coexistence shouldn’t face retribution. We need dialogue.”
Secretary of State Pompeo was referencing the Conference of Arab Thinkers in London that called on the Arab world to accept Israel. Leading, forward thinking, unafraid Arab thinkers from fifteen countries bravely gathered to assert that the time has come for Arabs and Muslims to embrace Israel.
Kudos to those who attended the conference. Kudos to Mike Pompeo.
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Monday 25, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, visited Israel on Sunday. He met with his Israeli counterpart, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi.
The IDF released a statement about the meeting. The official statement read that Milley’s visit was a sign of “the depth of the partnership between the forces and its importance in promoting regional stability.”
This is no small event. Tensions in the region are high. Iran is flexing its muscles all over. Their support for Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and in Syria is two examples of Iran’s involvement very lose to Israel’s borders.
Iran has forces and advisers on the ground in Syria. That is way too close for Israel’s and the United States’ comfort.
Add to that Iran’s nuclear expansion activities and their moves against the US drone and against Saudi oil sites. Iran is feeling very secure.
Israel and the United States need to be on the same page to be able to check Iran when necessary.
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Sunday 24, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
The New York Times ran a piece recently about the Arab Council for Regional Integration, a conference that took place in London.
The conference consisted of a group of Arabs who came to the conclusion that rejection of Israel has failed and actually hurt the Arab cause. They determined that the time has come to not just recognize Israel, but to cooperate with Israel.
The conference was sponsored by the Center for Peace Communications, a US group and it featured Arabs from business, academia, the media and even from political families.
It is essential to realize that there are Arab leaders who understand that dealing with Israel can be mutually beneficial. That, even when the parties disagree, there are still benefits to meeting and creating deals that will help grow the region.
This is a major step forward.
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Friday 22, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Two Russian tour agencies are offering excursions to Syria.
The itineraries include Damascus, Aleppo and Roman remains of Palmyra, also known as the “Bride of the Desert.”
The cost of the 8-day trip is $1950, US dollars. This does not include flights, visa fees and insurance. Pricey -- but people are signing up.
According to the website of the Russian foreign ministry, they strongly advise against traveling to Syria.
So far in 2019, 334 Russian tourists visited Syria. That was three times the number of Russian visitors in 2018. It looks like Syria will host even more Russian tourists in 2020.
It is hard to imagine why any Russian, or anyone at all, would want to visit Syria. Then again, there are people who are actually excited going into war zones. There is a niche market for tourist who want to be the first or for those who want to explore dangerous areas.
These Russian tour agencies have tapped into that culture.
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Thursday 21, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Iranians have been protesting over huge hikes in the price of gasoline.
There was a real chance that these protests were going to grow and expand and maybe even topple the Iranian regime. So Iranian leadership jumped in and reacted.
They sent in brutal police to intimidate the protestors. And the Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that if the protests do not stop, they will step in. The threat was well understood.
I addition, on Saturday Iranian leadership shut off the internet. It was off for four days and when turned back on – only 4% of the internet actually resumed.
When the internet is turned off in Iran real communication is effectively squashed.
Iranian leadership had never before choked the internet to this extent. They liked what they saw. They saw how effective this method was.
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Wednesday 20, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
The USS Abraham Lincoln, a US aircraft carrier, passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday along with accompanying ships.
The carrier group went through the Strait very slowly. The entire passage was tense.
On one side of the Strait is Iran.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have been very high.
The United States blames Iran for hijacking oil tankers and for shooting down a US drone. The United States is also claiming that Iran attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Iran has threatened to attack a US military ship in the region.
The USS Abraham Lincoln and the carrier group are in the region to try to protect oil, shipping and other interests of the United States in the region.
Iran is monitoring every move.
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Monday 18, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Russia is expanding their weapons program.
The Russians are on the prowl for new clients interested in buying their fighter jets and missiles. Egypt has been enticed and they are in talks with Russia about augmenting their air force.
If the sale goes through, it would a violation of US contracts. Until now, ever since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been supplying Egypt with weaponry.
R. Clarke Cooper, Assistant Secretary of State in the US Bureau of Political- Military Affairs, issued a very bold and direct statement at the Dubai Air Show. The assistant secretary said that if Egypt buys Russian hardware: "It puts them at risk of sanctions and it puts them at risk of loss of future acquisition."
There are other sanctions that the US would apply. These would include spare parts and technology and anything that is connected even remotely to military assistance.
It would Egypt in the long run. But Russia really wants to break the US hold on countries like Egypt and is making their offers sound very attractive.
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Sunday 17, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
The Supreme Leader of Iran, the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, announced that he is not anti-Jewish at all.
At an Islamic conference in Tehran The Supreme Leader told the participants: “Calling for the elimination of the state of Israel does not mean the elimination of the Jewish people.” The comments were posted to his official website.
He continued “It means that the people of Palestine - be they Muslim, Christian or Jewish - should choose their own government.”
Iran is responding to the claims that they are planning to destroy Israel. The Supreme Leader wants it to be clear that his attitude toward Israel is political and theological.
It is certain that The Supreme Leader does not really think that there should be an election to determine the political leadership of the area. He is making a gesture to rebut his vehement threats to destroy Israel.
When you plan to wipe out a nation of 7 million Jews that is called anti-Semitism. Most of those 7 million people are not religious - they are simply Jews and they will be targeted because they are Jews.
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Thursday 14, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
A cease fire between Islamic Jihad and Israel went into effect at 5:30am.
As has become the custom, air raid sirens and rockets attacks persisted even after the cut off time.
The military exchange started on Tuesday and ended on Thursday. Thirty-two Palestinians were killed. Israel maintains that almost all were terrorists.
Islamic Jihad launched well over 450 rockets into Israel in a 48 hour period. That averages out to nearly 10 per hour - one rocket every 360 seconds on average.
Islamic Jihad threatened the international diplomats who were delivering messages from Israel. The threats were that intermediaries could get hurt because they are in the way and they are delivering messages from Israel.
It's over, technically, but it's never really over between Islamic Jihad and Israel.
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Wednesday November 13, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
The conflict out of Gaza is unique in many ways:
It pits Islamic Jihad against Israel - Hamas has stood on the sidelines
No one wants an escalation
Hamas is pleased with the ceasefire that has been in place since May
Israel's first strike was extremely surgical as have been their subsequent strikes. They are now taking out many above ground Islamic Jihad rockets.
Hamas does not control Islamic Jihad. They will watch, and smile, while Israel takes Islamic Jihad down a few notches.
In an effort to display unity, Hamas and Islamic Jihad released a joint statement saying that they are united. But it is not true. Their statement read: "We will not accept efforts by the occupation to resume their cowardly policy of targeted killings."
Islamic Jihad is unpredictable. Targeting their leader saved Israeli lives - never doubt that. The aftermath was predictable. But after a serious operation in which Israel depletes or destroys much of their weapons caches, the status quo and quiet will resume.
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Tuesday November 12, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
A Russian submarine was spotted in Israeli territorial waters. The sub ventured eight nautical miles in. That's a lot, given that the area spans only twelve nautical miles.
The story was broken by YNet news, the Yediot website. The incident took place three months ago.
Once Israel discovered the Russian sub, they contacted Russian leadership.
Russia and Israel have a mechanism in place to avoid conflict. They have a direct line of communication. Within minutes of activating the mechanism, the
Russian submarine returned to the international waters of the Mediterranean Sea.
Luckily, this did not become an international incident.
Russia did not mistakenly wander into waters so close to Israel. There was a definite agenda. The closer the submarine got to Israel, the easier it would be to latch onto Israel’s computers and other electronic resources.
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Monday November 11, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Iran’s president announced that the Iranians have discovered a huge new oil reserve.
President Rouhani said that they discovered a source containing 53 billion barrels of oil about 100 yards below the ground.
If true, this treasure trove would be only slightly smaller than the largest Iranian oil system which contains 63 billion barrels.
If true, this would move Iran into the # 3 slot in the list of countries with the greatest oil reserves.
If true, this discovery is so large that it would increase total OPEC reserves by 34%.
Add that to the announcement Iran made last month about a new discovery of natural gas. Something very big is happening in Iran.
The announcements are made publicly in an effort to reposition Iran in the eyes of supporters. The message Iran is sending out is that they are not down in the dumps – rather they are major players in the sphere of oil and natural gas.
The most important, albeit unspoken, point in these messages is that the United States is preventing Iran from tapping these resources. The United States will not permit Iran to extract and sell their badly needed natural resources.
The resources are badly needed by the world, the revenue is badly needed by Iran. These announcements help resuscitate Iran’s image.
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Sunday November 10, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Jordan and Israel signed a peace treaty on October 26, 1994.
The signing took place "somewhere: in the Arava Desert. I was there. It was historic and it was emotional.
Now, twenty-five years later, Jordan is walking back two elements in the treaty. The Jordanians are not breaking the treaty, provisions to reclaim certain areas were included in the original document and the Jordanians have decided to exercise that option.
# 1: Naharayim
Naharayim is an island, it is where the Yarmuk and Jordan rivers merge. The spot is a very important fresh water pumping and control station for the entire Jordan valley. Parenthetically, it is also the site where in 1997, a terrible massacre took place and seven Israeli high school girls were gunned down by a Jordanian soldier.
# 2: Tzofar
Tzofar is a plot of land in the Arava. Once dry and barren, thanks to Israeli care and agricultural science, it is now cultivated and flourishing.
Both areas are reverting back to Jordan. The government of Jordan put forth the requests a year ago as clearly articulated in the 1994 peace agreement.
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Friday November 8, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the synagogue in Halle, Germany where last month a man threw bombs and shot people outside their synagogue. A Jewish massacre in the synagogue was averted only because those already inside the synagogue for prayers locked themselves in.
Secretary Pompeo wanted to take a stand against anti-Semitism. He also urged others to fight against anti-Semitism.
The secretary of state said, "Anti-Semitism is not just limited to certain places. We can find it everywhere… like in Pittsburgh. We must work together against this vicious attack on religious freedom.”
Pompeo is more than correct to fight anti-Semitism. Where he misses the point, however, is that hatred is not about religion and the practice of Judaism – the problem anti-Semites have is not universal hatred against religion, their problem is with Jews.
Anti-Semites have no problem with Judaism.
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Thursday November 7, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
According to charges filed in San Francisco, Saudi Arabia is directly connected to spying on Twitter users in America between May 21, 2015 and November 18, 2018. Two dual citizens of the United States and Saudi Arabia and one Saudi national were charged with accessing Twitter details and delivering the data to the Saudis.
The case is shocking.
Two Twitter employees and one handler were responsible for collecting the data of 6,000 critics of the Saudi regime. Not just their names, and usernames - they also accessed the meta data, the material that can show the geographic location of the user.
They did it In exchange for money and gifts.
Ahmad Abouammo, one of the dual citizens, was a media partnership manager at Twitter. He received $300,000 and a $20,000 Hubolt watch, paid by an unnamed person referred to as Saudi National -1.
Ali Alzabarah, the second Saudi/US dual citizen worked at Twitter as a site reliability engineer. He was confronted for accessing private Twitter info which was outside his job responsibilities. The next day he resigned by sending an email from a plane. He was on his way back to Saudi Arabia with his handler.
With the info gained from these spies the Saudi government boldly put in a request to Twitter for information on 33 Twitter usernames in what they called an "emergency disclosure".
Twitter admits that the nature of the industry creates "bad actors" who will try to undermine its service and that the company "limits access to sensitive account information to a limited group of trained and vetted employees."
The company statement read: "We understand the incredible risks faced by many who use Twitter to share their perspectives with the world and to hold those in power accountable ... We have tools in place to protect their privacy and their ability to do their vital work."
This entire episode is very troubling. The redeeming point is that the Saudis were charged and that the government was named.
If you remember, the 9-11 hijackers were Saudis. Mysteriously, despite the fact that all flights in the US were grounded, private Saudi planes flew returning many Saudi nationals to the kingdom. The United States has and continues to block any move to investigate how the Saudis were involved.
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Wednesday November 6, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
You probably don't know this, most people don't, but Libya has been enveloped by a civil war. As a land mass, Libya is enormous, it is three times the size of Texas. It is the Tobruk aka the House of Representatives versus the General National Congress. It may sound purely political, but this is true military warfare.
Who does know about it? Vladimir Putin, for sure.
For years the Russians have been investing money and weapons in order to sway the outcome of the conflict. They are rooting for and supporting the Tobruk. Now -- and I mean right now -- Russia has put specialists with experience on the ground in Libya.
The numbers are, of course, unclear. This is Russia we are dealing with. But we do know that there are dozens of Russian snipers, Russian hardware and at least 200 Russian soldiers. Russian weaponry includes guided missiles and fighter jets. And there are many, many Russian mercenaries. These mercenaries function as a private Russian army and they are extremely useful. Because they are not soldiers, the mercenaries are unshackled and can do things an army cannot do.
Hundreds of drones are being used and they are all operated by people with great experience in civil wars. The Russian soldiers and the mercenaries all came to this war with vast experience gained in Syria.
What is the reason for Russia's interest in Libya? The answer has three letters. O-I-L.
The reserves are immense. Despite the internal conflict, Libya is still pumping 1.3 million barrels of oil per day.
Libya is so close to Europe that it is very important to secure those oil fields.
Moving the oil via pipeline or tanker is simple. Libya sits only 300 miles off the coast of Italy. That means that Libya is a valuable asset to acquire.
Russia knows it. Putin has his eye on the money and the oil. In Libya he can get both for a very tiny investment.
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Tuesday November 5, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Iran has announced the third stage of their reaction to the pullout by the United States from the - now infamous - Nuke Deal of 2015.
In September the Iranians declared that stage three was in the works and on Monday, as promised, the announcement was made.
Iran is now producing more than the 5,000 rods of uranium way beyond what was agreed upon in the Deal. Until now, the Iranians were using old IR centrifuges, now they are using newer and better IR-6 centrifuges. They are enriching their uranium ten times faster than stipulated in the agreement and ten times faster than what they were enriching in September.
The announcement was made on Iranian TV.
Ali Akbar Salehi, Vice President of the Islamic Republic and Head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Agency made the announcement. Salehi also said that Iran was working on IR-9 centrifuges which will be able to enrich fifty times faster than the IR-1.
The Iranians are public relations whizzes. They chose to release their information on TV, rather than at a press conference, to show the Iranian masses that Iran is snubbing its nose at the West, in particular, at the United States.
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Monday November 4, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
Syria and Iran just signed a Memorandum of Understanding.
Iran agrees to rebuild Syria’s electricity infrastructure. Iran agrees to rebuild Syria’s power plant transmission line. Most importantly, Iran agrees to link their electric grid with Syria’s electric grid.
Syria has been isolated by the Western world. Russia and China have not come forward to rebuild the Syrian electricity infrastructure – Iran has.
This link between Syria and Iran demonstrates a deep interaction between the two states. They are linked by mutual interests and by mutual gains and more than that, they are linked because they share mutual enemies.
Iran and Syria need one another.
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Thursday November 1, 2019
I've Been Thinking:
President Bashar Assad claims that the protests in Lebanon and in Iraq as well the civil war that has ripped his country apart for the last eight years are all the fault of Israel and the United States. The Syrian president said that all these events are “tools serving Israel directly or through the Americans”.
He said “this is self-evident. Even if we do not discuss it, it is one of our national givens in Syria.”
Iran has joined the chorus. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif is also claiming that the protests in Lebanon and Iraq are sponsored by Israel.
Of course, this is totally absurd.
The blame Israel game is an old story. Blaming Israel for all things gone wrong is a historic tradition that has enveloped the Middle East.
These voices are becoming stronger. But so are the voices of other Middle East countries willing to break down traditional views of Israel and move closer and closer towards normalization.
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